Monday, April 25, 2005

Iraq's political scene, today.

It's become almost certain that the Iraqi list led by Allawi is not going to take part in the formation of a national unity type of government. Allawi warned the upcoming government from adopting a sectarian mindset in dealing with the situation and he expressed his wishes that such thing won't happen but he stressed that he will keep supporting the government regardless of his lists role in it.
At the same time, the negotiations with Ghazi Al-Yawir regarding the role of the Arab Sunni in the government are about to reach an a positive end and thus announcing the new formations is expected to happen soon once approved by the presidency board.

Meanwhile, the tension brought by the Mada'en case has begun to fade and we are not hearing much about it in the news or on the streets anymore and it seems that this was associated with reaching an agreement about the post of the ministry of interior. We have pointed out the correlation between the two cases earlier and we said that the exaggeration is a result of a conflict over who should control the security file.

I have heard news saying that Hadi Al-Amiri (from Badr org. of the SCIRI) had pulled back his nomination for the post and that Bayan Jabur, the ex-minister of construction and the moderate Shea't had replaced Al-Amiri.
Al-Amiri said that there are some parties trying to create distrust between the SCIRI and the US administration and he confirmed that his party has no intentions in monopolizing the security file or eliminating certain elements related to the past regime.
He also stressed that "Badr had disarmed its men and that it's an entirely civic, political organization that has representatives in the Assembly and working with the rest of Iraqis to build a democratic country and wipe away the pains of the dark years".

In another development, the "association of Muslim scholars" condemned the latest attacks that targeted a number of She'at mosques and described the attacks as "terrorism and mere crimes".
It seems like that came the association is being subjected to intense pressures after the warnings from She'at parties calling the association to clarify its position from these operations and through this rejection, the association tries to break the isolation and remove the doubts about its involvement in terror attacks, plus they don't want the negotiations between the Sunni Arabs and the She'at coalition to fail as a failure would cost them their last chance to negotiate for a role in the new government.

However, I still see that this condemnation is not from the heart as they wouldn't have done that without pressures from other parties and without an internal conflict between the two wings of the association; one wants to take part in the political process while the other more radical one wants to keep on fighting; a method that have brought them nothing but the people's contempt.

The Sunni-in trouble-situation was visible in the negotiations with the She'at alliance as the Sunni couldn't till now agree among themselves on a common political leadership as they have too many differences among their different groups.
Anyway, the way negotiations are moving suggests that the Sunni are closer now to the political choice than they're to the armed choice and this calls for some optimism for the coming phase despite the escalated violence from the radical wing which refused to stop the violence in an attempt (I consider futile) obviously aiming at forcing the moderate Sunni to abandon the political process.
I think this attempt is futile as military ways have proven to be fruitless and many of those who supported it in the 1st place have begun to realize this fact.

While some observers see that there's deterioration in the security conditions and are using this to support their vision about failure of the change in Iraq I see this escalation of violence as a last wave that cannot stop the wheel from moving as this wheel is gaining more momentum from the people while the extremists are losing whatever little momentum they have.

The Iraqi people have agreed on a certain way to build their future and it’s definitely different from that of terror and I believe that no sane person can think that terror can defeat the whole people.
Yes. We're bleeding but they're bleeding too and considering the reserves of each camp; we're far more capable of winning this battle.
All the car bombs and the assassinations against the army and IP had led to nothing but an increase in the number of operating Iraqi security forces and murdering the recruits didn't lead to anything but more lines of recruits showing more determination and bravery.
The terrorists have lost the people and who loses the people's trust loses the war eventually.


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