Sunday, April 11, 2004

:: Baghdad is quiet today, probably this is the most quiet day since a week or more.
The She'at practiced their ceremonies peacefully today (although in smaller numbers if compared with A'ashoura) in Kerbala and in Kadhimiyah in Baghdad as well. We were worried that something tragic -like what happened in the same place 40 days ago- might happen but, thank God, nothing bad happened as I know.
Something we noticed recently is that we had no car bombs or suicidal attacks in Baghdad or other cities in the last ten days, this is good of course as we used to suffer from such attacks almost daily, but this gives rise to a question; why? Is it a shift in their strategies, or what?
There are some possibilities, one is that the terrorists are having their plans carried out by some small radical fanatic Iraqi groups who are giving rise to the instability they desire, so why should they bother themselves if someone else is doing the job for them?!
The other possibility is that the foreigner terrorists are relying on the temporary alliance (or cease fire) between the radical Wahabis and the radical aggressive minority of the She'at that follow Muqtada. They probably think that this can be promoted to an allience between all the Sunni and all the She'at against the coalition which will never happen because the majority of the She'at still shows their disapproval with Muqtada's ways, and this was strengthened by Sistani's words
They dream that history can repeat itself (the revolt against the British in 1920) but they forgot that the circumstances now are very different from that time, and even that alliance at that time didn't last long as the radical groups on both sides hate each other more than anything else. I heard it from many Wahabis years ago that the most dangerous enemies to Islam are the Islamic brotherhood and the Wahabis and there's no reason for me to believe that they have changed their minds as fanatics never change their mind.
There's also another possible factor, which is that the majority of foreigner terrorists are now trapped in Fallujah and cannot break through the siege.
Whatever the reason is, I think it's just a matter of time before this honeymoon (the alliance between the to extremes) reaches an end.

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