The Al-bu Issa tribes in Amiriyat al-Fallujah backed by local police and the MNF clashed with members of the l-Qaeda linked "Islamic State in Iraq" terror organization today, according to al-Hurra TV.
The tribe involved in the clashes has opposed al-Qaeda for months now and is part of the Awakening Council.
The battles that are still ongoing have so far left 39 terrorists killed including the “ministers of oil and war” of the terror organization. Six policemen and 11 tribal fighters were also killed during the fighting.
The report adds that US troops found and securely detonated a tanker filled with chlorine gas the terrorists were planning to use in chemical attacks on the area.
Meanwhile, a police force of 500, conducting raids in northern and central parts of Ramadi, captured weapons and bomb-making material, and arrested dozens of suspects.
New points of view about the future of Iraq and the Middle East.
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Monday, March 19, 2007
Checkpoint and double checkpoint.
STOP! Official Checkpoint By orders of the Prime Minister and Commander of Baghdad Operations Checkpoint No. 4 Sector No. 6
A sign similar to this one greets you at all fixed checkpoints in Baghdad. These words authenticate the legitimacy of the checkpoint and emphasize who’s in charge in this or that area.
With the constant force buildup many streets now host multiple checkpoints, both fixed and mobile. All are positioned in a manner that allows soldiers in one to have visual contact with those in the next one.
As the operations continue, the interior ministry is introducing new identification measures for vehicles used by its personnel. The new armored vehicles are unique and leave no room for confusion, while the SUV’s are getting new light-green paint with the words ‘National Police’ well visible on the sides.
From my personal experience I can tell that the men staffing the checkpoints do not take their job lightly. One can feel that a long month of hard work did not exhaust them, and I am awed by the courage of those soldiers and policemen. In a city which has absorbed more suicide bombings than all other cities in the world combined every passing vehicle or motorcycle is a threat.
I can’t imagine myself in a position where my job requires I open dozens of trunks every day and each one of those moments might be the end of my life and those of the people around me. The physical and psychological pressure is enormous, yet those brave men continue to be our shield.
I was listening to the radio this morning and the first headline was ‘Policeman killed in an explosion south of Baghdad’. The story later explains that ‘south of Baghdad’ actually meant Babil. Babil is actually 60 miles away from Baghdad. The misleading headline underscored again how most media try to associate every piece of bad news with Baghdad to maintain the image of violence associated with the city.
No doubt people who follow the news as it is being reported in the West get the impression that we’re fighting a lost war, and I feel that there won’t be a day when our struggle to live a normal life and what we achieve in this path will make headlines that run above those of death.
You look around in Baghdad now and see hundreds of men working in the streets to pick up garbage; to plant flowers and paint the blast walls in joyful colors. Many of Baghdad’s squares are becoming green and clean. The picture isn’t perfect, but it’s a clear attempt to beat violence and ease pain through giving the spring a chance to shine.
Nights in Baghdad now are far from quiet, but the sounds cause less anxiety for me than they did before. I recognize the rumble of armor and thump of guns and they assure me that the gangs and militias do not dominate the night as they once did.
When an Arabs or westerners ask me about the situation and I answer that hope remains and that we’re looking forward to a better future most would say ‘Are you living in this world?’ I answer, ‘Yes, it’s you who live in the parallel world the media built for you with images of only death and destruction’.
If it surprised some of them that a poll found Iraqis optimistic, then I’m surprised that someone finally bothered to ask Iraqis how they feel.
Just as free birds would never return to the cage, we don’t want to return to the days of the tyrant. Birds do not care that beasts roam outside and would not feel nostalgic for a home or meal mixed with humiliation.
All that a free bird cares about is to spread wings and fly as it pleases.
A sign similar to this one greets you at all fixed checkpoints in Baghdad. These words authenticate the legitimacy of the checkpoint and emphasize who’s in charge in this or that area.
With the constant force buildup many streets now host multiple checkpoints, both fixed and mobile. All are positioned in a manner that allows soldiers in one to have visual contact with those in the next one.
As the operations continue, the interior ministry is introducing new identification measures for vehicles used by its personnel. The new armored vehicles are unique and leave no room for confusion, while the SUV’s are getting new light-green paint with the words ‘National Police’ well visible on the sides.
From my personal experience I can tell that the men staffing the checkpoints do not take their job lightly. One can feel that a long month of hard work did not exhaust them, and I am awed by the courage of those soldiers and policemen. In a city which has absorbed more suicide bombings than all other cities in the world combined every passing vehicle or motorcycle is a threat.
I can’t imagine myself in a position where my job requires I open dozens of trunks every day and each one of those moments might be the end of my life and those of the people around me. The physical and psychological pressure is enormous, yet those brave men continue to be our shield.
I was listening to the radio this morning and the first headline was ‘Policeman killed in an explosion south of Baghdad’. The story later explains that ‘south of Baghdad’ actually meant Babil. Babil is actually 60 miles away from Baghdad. The misleading headline underscored again how most media try to associate every piece of bad news with Baghdad to maintain the image of violence associated with the city.
No doubt people who follow the news as it is being reported in the West get the impression that we’re fighting a lost war, and I feel that there won’t be a day when our struggle to live a normal life and what we achieve in this path will make headlines that run above those of death.
You look around in Baghdad now and see hundreds of men working in the streets to pick up garbage; to plant flowers and paint the blast walls in joyful colors. Many of Baghdad’s squares are becoming green and clean. The picture isn’t perfect, but it’s a clear attempt to beat violence and ease pain through giving the spring a chance to shine.
Nights in Baghdad now are far from quiet, but the sounds cause less anxiety for me than they did before. I recognize the rumble of armor and thump of guns and they assure me that the gangs and militias do not dominate the night as they once did.
When an Arabs or westerners ask me about the situation and I answer that hope remains and that we’re looking forward to a better future most would say ‘Are you living in this world?’ I answer, ‘Yes, it’s you who live in the parallel world the media built for you with images of only death and destruction’.
If it surprised some of them that a poll found Iraqis optimistic, then I’m surprised that someone finally bothered to ask Iraqis how they feel.
Just as free birds would never return to the cage, we don’t want to return to the days of the tyrant. Birds do not care that beasts roam outside and would not feel nostalgic for a home or meal mixed with humiliation.
All that a free bird cares about is to spread wings and fly as it pleases.
Saturday, March 17, 2007
One thing al-Qaeda excels at; making new enemies.
With this series of dirty chemical bombings a war between al-Qaeda and the tribes in Anbar is no longer a possibility. It just became a fact.
I've read at least two very optimistic reports from al-Almada in the last week about purported victories of the tribes and police over al-Qaeda in Ramadi and Fallujah. I was reluctant to trust the accuracy of the reports which sited unnamed sources but now seeing the reaction of al-Qaeda suggests that the action of the tribes was so painful that al-Qaeda retaliated in the way we see today.
Al-Qaeda's terrorists-whom AP insists on calling insurgents-expended three suicide bombers and precious resources against their supposedly sympathetic civilian Sunni hosts instead of American and Iraqi soldiers and Shia civilians; their usual enemies.
If this indicates anything it indicates that al-Qaeda's is reprioritizing the targets on the hit list. The reason: al-Qaeda is sensing a serious threat in the change of attitude of the tribes toward them and perhaps the apparently successful meeting of the sheiks with Maliki and the agreements that were made then was the point at which open war had to be declared.
The tribes in Anbar are stubborn and they have many ruthless warriors. That's a proven fact and it looks like Al-Qaeda had just made their gravest mistake—their once best friends are just about to become their worst enemy.
I've read at least two very optimistic reports from al-Almada in the last week about purported victories of the tribes and police over al-Qaeda in Ramadi and Fallujah. I was reluctant to trust the accuracy of the reports which sited unnamed sources but now seeing the reaction of al-Qaeda suggests that the action of the tribes was so painful that al-Qaeda retaliated in the way we see today.
Al-Qaeda's terrorists-whom AP insists on calling insurgents-expended three suicide bombers and precious resources against their supposedly sympathetic civilian Sunni hosts instead of American and Iraqi soldiers and Shia civilians; their usual enemies.
If this indicates anything it indicates that al-Qaeda's is reprioritizing the targets on the hit list. The reason: al-Qaeda is sensing a serious threat in the change of attitude of the tribes toward them and perhaps the apparently successful meeting of the sheiks with Maliki and the agreements that were made then was the point at which open war had to be declared.
The tribes in Anbar are stubborn and they have many ruthless warriors. That's a proven fact and it looks like Al-Qaeda had just made their gravest mistake—their once best friends are just about to become their worst enemy.
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Is Iran’s honeymoon in Iraq over?
Iran’s “project” in Iraq has recently been facing one setback after another. There are an increasing number of signs that the “project’s” prospects for success, for realizing Iran’s ambitions in Iraq, do no point upward anymore. It simply isn’t having much success lately in undermining Iraq’s emerging democracy through politics and force.
In the past Iran has employed several tracks to interfere directly and indirectly in Iraq. The mullahs celebrated several achievements in the project. They rejoiced when pro-Iran powers took over a big part of the Iraqi government.
In this they saw the real chance of a satellite Islamic state in Iraq offering them a strategic extension into the western front. It seemed as if the project of exporting the Islamic revolution designed by ayatollah Khomeini was reaping fruit after decades of planning. The dramatic fall of Arab nationalism in Iraq and the potential transformation of Iraq into a Shia theocratic ally would mean the fall of the last geographic wall between Iran and the allies in Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian territory. It would make the dream of Tehran’s dominance in the region a reality.
To achieve this dream Iran was compelled to force the coalition out of Iraq. This was attempted through constant calls for withdrawing coalition troops from Iraq by extremists in the parliament, and through the occasional use of armed forces. All maneuvers designed to push America to despair by creating the dilemma of ‘why help those who shoot at our soldiers and treat us as occupying enemies?’
While Iran couldn’t secure a majority support in Iraq’s political arena, it definitely secured enough clout to impede the secular democratic project. This costly -in lives and treasure - policy could, in the minds of the mullahs, force America to forsake her goals in Iraq.
That, at least, was the plan. But a number of interesting developments in Iraq in the last few weeks may mark the beginning of failure for Iran’s plan. The developments listed here were collected from both large and small stories in local Iraq newspapers. Perhaps none of them are significant alone, but putting the pieces together allows one to sense that a sea change is underway in this country and the tide is moving against Iran.
At last Friday’s ceremony in a major Shia mosque by a senior Shia cleric — in Najaf no less — Tehran’s interference in Iraq was roundly criticized, calling it an interference that “is not in Iraq’s interest.”
Another story notes the withdrawal of the Fadheela Party from the Shia bloc (the UIA). The Fadheela leaders said the reason for breaking away from the UIA was because the UIA didn’t act as a patriotic movement. This step stands as a challenge by the Arabic hierarchy of Yaqoubi (the Ayatollah behind Fadheela) to the Iranian-born Sistani and his hierarchy, combined with a call for nonsectarian political process.
There’s also the month-old and continuing Baghdad security operation, and the apparent determination of PM Maliki to confront and disarm all outlaws — especially those with connections with neighboring countries. In addition, the flight of Sadr and many others from Iraq has also dealt a blow to Iran’s influence in Iraq.
I’m almost certain Maliki’s statement during the conference last Saturday caused disappointment in Tehran. For the first time the head of state didn’t use double standards in addressing Iraq’s neighbors. Iran was addressed in the same tone that Suuni neighbors were addressed. This by the very Shia premier Iran was hoping to make its puppet.
Not only the Shia front recorded setbacks. The Kurds of Iraq are distancing themselves from Iran and flirting with their Saudi opponents. The visit Masoud Barzani (the president of Kurdistan in Iraq) made to the Saudi capital has more or less marked a significant change in Iran’s relationships with Iraq’s Kurds. Especially at a time when the IRGC is threatening to chase down Kurdish rebels on Iraqi soil in Kurdistan. It is highly probable that the visit was to remind Iran that Kurds are at the same time Sunni.
All in all, things are not going the way Khamenie or Nejad were dreaming of just a few months ago. Overall the course of events recently in Iraq indicates the beginning of a severe fall for Iran’s stocks in Iraq.
Of course we shouldn’t expect Iran to just sit back and not respond. I think an escalation in attacks by militias loyal to Iran will take place soon, especially outside Baghdad.
In the past Iran has employed several tracks to interfere directly and indirectly in Iraq. The mullahs celebrated several achievements in the project. They rejoiced when pro-Iran powers took over a big part of the Iraqi government.
In this they saw the real chance of a satellite Islamic state in Iraq offering them a strategic extension into the western front. It seemed as if the project of exporting the Islamic revolution designed by ayatollah Khomeini was reaping fruit after decades of planning. The dramatic fall of Arab nationalism in Iraq and the potential transformation of Iraq into a Shia theocratic ally would mean the fall of the last geographic wall between Iran and the allies in Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian territory. It would make the dream of Tehran’s dominance in the region a reality.
To achieve this dream Iran was compelled to force the coalition out of Iraq. This was attempted through constant calls for withdrawing coalition troops from Iraq by extremists in the parliament, and through the occasional use of armed forces. All maneuvers designed to push America to despair by creating the dilemma of ‘why help those who shoot at our soldiers and treat us as occupying enemies?’
While Iran couldn’t secure a majority support in Iraq’s political arena, it definitely secured enough clout to impede the secular democratic project. This costly -in lives and treasure - policy could, in the minds of the mullahs, force America to forsake her goals in Iraq.
That, at least, was the plan. But a number of interesting developments in Iraq in the last few weeks may mark the beginning of failure for Iran’s plan. The developments listed here were collected from both large and small stories in local Iraq newspapers. Perhaps none of them are significant alone, but putting the pieces together allows one to sense that a sea change is underway in this country and the tide is moving against Iran.
At last Friday’s ceremony in a major Shia mosque by a senior Shia cleric — in Najaf no less — Tehran’s interference in Iraq was roundly criticized, calling it an interference that “is not in Iraq’s interest.”
Another story notes the withdrawal of the Fadheela Party from the Shia bloc (the UIA). The Fadheela leaders said the reason for breaking away from the UIA was because the UIA didn’t act as a patriotic movement. This step stands as a challenge by the Arabic hierarchy of Yaqoubi (the Ayatollah behind Fadheela) to the Iranian-born Sistani and his hierarchy, combined with a call for nonsectarian political process.
There’s also the month-old and continuing Baghdad security operation, and the apparent determination of PM Maliki to confront and disarm all outlaws — especially those with connections with neighboring countries. In addition, the flight of Sadr and many others from Iraq has also dealt a blow to Iran’s influence in Iraq.
I’m almost certain Maliki’s statement during the conference last Saturday caused disappointment in Tehran. For the first time the head of state didn’t use double standards in addressing Iraq’s neighbors. Iran was addressed in the same tone that Suuni neighbors were addressed. This by the very Shia premier Iran was hoping to make its puppet.
Not only the Shia front recorded setbacks. The Kurds of Iraq are distancing themselves from Iran and flirting with their Saudi opponents. The visit Masoud Barzani (the president of Kurdistan in Iraq) made to the Saudi capital has more or less marked a significant change in Iran’s relationships with Iraq’s Kurds. Especially at a time when the IRGC is threatening to chase down Kurdish rebels on Iraqi soil in Kurdistan. It is highly probable that the visit was to remind Iran that Kurds are at the same time Sunni.
All in all, things are not going the way Khamenie or Nejad were dreaming of just a few months ago. Overall the course of events recently in Iraq indicates the beginning of a severe fall for Iran’s stocks in Iraq.
Of course we shouldn’t expect Iran to just sit back and not respond. I think an escalation in attacks by militias loyal to Iran will take place soon, especially outside Baghdad.
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Action follows calm...
The front in Baghdad has been remarkably quiet in the last 48 hours, until about an hour ago when we started to hear many explosions in the distance.
From the increased activity of jetfighters and the way the explosions sound it looks like a wave of aerial bombing is underway somewhere on the peripheries of the city…not sure yet what's going on but we'll provide an update if we find more info.
Update:
It's pretty much quiet now but a freind calling from Plaestine Street, just west of Sadr city, says the explosions were very loud in that part of the city...I guess only the morning will reveal what happned tonight.
From the increased activity of jetfighters and the way the explosions sound it looks like a wave of aerial bombing is underway somewhere on the peripheries of the city…not sure yet what's going on but we'll provide an update if we find more info.
Update:
It's pretty much quiet now but a freind calling from Plaestine Street, just west of Sadr city, says the explosions were very loud in that part of the city...I guess only the morning will reveal what happned tonight.
Monday, March 12, 2007
Why in my garden? I'm not Frodo!
On one cold morning in December I was drinking my coffee in the garden when this ugly object flew two hundred meters from an IED site and landed just next to my feet.
It was still hot when I picked it up from the grass…from the serrations on the broad end and the way it was bent I knew it was part of the base of some artillery shell that was part of the freshly detonated bomb I just heard.
Among the countless various bullets and fragments I've seen and collected over years from three wars this one is, well, my favorite that I still keep it on my desk. Actually it's more like a mixed feeling of despise and amazement that I can't describe well.
As a huge fan of the Lord of The Rings, both the movie and the game-and I'd suspect many would agree with me-I think this is the best accidental representation of the severed finger of Sauron…
It's creepy how an act of evil managed to produce what qualifies for a piece of artwork, only to summon an evil character; one that belongs to a movie though.
It was still hot when I picked it up from the grass…from the serrations on the broad end and the way it was bent I knew it was part of the base of some artillery shell that was part of the freshly detonated bomb I just heard.
Among the countless various bullets and fragments I've seen and collected over years from three wars this one is, well, my favorite that I still keep it on my desk. Actually it's more like a mixed feeling of despise and amazement that I can't describe well.
As a huge fan of the Lord of The Rings, both the movie and the game-and I'd suspect many would agree with me-I think this is the best accidental representation of the severed finger of Sauron…
It's creepy how an act of evil managed to produce what qualifies for a piece of artwork, only to summon an evil character; one that belongs to a movie though.
Friday, March 09, 2007
The Baghdad Conference.
Will tomorrow's conference be a positive contribution to stability in Iraq and to building better relationships with the neighbors and the international community?
Of course that's what we wish to see but it's more about the intentions of the participants than our wishes.
The public opinion here isn't showing a lot of interest in the event and the subject rarely finds its way to common conversations, actually most people do not know who's going to be here for the conference, that, if they are at all aware it's going to be held tomorrow and in Baghdad—people are tired of watching neighboring countries interfering in Iraq almost always against Iraq's interests. Although some tend to focus on the interference from one country and ignore or deny that from another, there's an agreement that harmful interference exist with a general feeling that a conference couldn’t do much for stability.
I personally think that most of those meeting tomorrow will show up just to pretend they are willing to help while common sense suggests they don't—the reality that was born after the change in Iraq represented by toppling a dictatorship and the attempt to build a new state on basis of democracy, rule of law and protecting minority rights is raising deep concerns among some of our neighbors. And perhaps watching the former dictator walk to the gallows for a crime he committed twenty five years ago made them think about how similar their history is to Saddam's and fear for their own heads and wonder what kind of concessions they'd have to make to keep their heads on their shoulders.
What's been going on since 2003 is that most of the neighbors want Iraq to fail and to do that they saw that feeding a proxy war using local surrogates and foreign terrorists was the best strategy to block the tide of change off their doors. In this manner the slower progress is being made in Iraq the longer their regimes can last, so why would anyone think those little tyrants like to see a democratic federal Iraq run by a constitution approved by the people!?
The Israeli-Palestinian issue offers a clear example of the effect of regional interference in the region; the players are almost exactly the same and their policy is pretty much the same as well in both cases.
The conflict is almost sixty years old and the Arab regimes still wouldn't accept Israel's existence. It is wrong to think that this only about disputed rights in land because the conflict is largely due to the nature of Israel's political system and the way of living which differ a lot from those in Arab countries.
Interference from Arab and Muslim countries has always been to keep the conflict alive if not to further complicate it, and the Palestinians themselves weakened their position and lost much by accepting involvement from other Arabs. Even the peace treaties that some had signed with Israel do not seem to reflect sincere interest in long-lasting peace.
Those regimes will keep on meddling in Iraq and the Palestinian territory and they will continue to fund and arm groups of extremists and do anything they can to kill any seeds of democracy.
Like we said many times before, a simple reading of the history of the region tells us to not trust the words of dictators and clerics, for words are inexpensive and clerics and dictators have plenty of words they are willing to use to buy time.
However I do think the Baghdad conference will be significant in another aspect and this would be stressing the reality that Iraq is a state equal to her neighbors and that in Baghdad there is an elected government representative of its people.
Insisting that the conference be in Baghdad and not somewhere else kind of sends a message that Iraq is not anyone's backyard and the government is not a bunch of dissidents living in exile and our neighbors will have to recognize this reality.
It is a sad fact that most of our Shia politicians often blame Syria and Saudi Arabia for violence in the country while remaining silent about Iran and the opposite is true when it comes to most Sunni politicians, so finally I hope that whoever's representing Baghdad in tomorrow's meeting will deal with all of the abusive neighbors equally.
Of course that's what we wish to see but it's more about the intentions of the participants than our wishes.
The public opinion here isn't showing a lot of interest in the event and the subject rarely finds its way to common conversations, actually most people do not know who's going to be here for the conference, that, if they are at all aware it's going to be held tomorrow and in Baghdad—people are tired of watching neighboring countries interfering in Iraq almost always against Iraq's interests. Although some tend to focus on the interference from one country and ignore or deny that from another, there's an agreement that harmful interference exist with a general feeling that a conference couldn’t do much for stability.
I personally think that most of those meeting tomorrow will show up just to pretend they are willing to help while common sense suggests they don't—the reality that was born after the change in Iraq represented by toppling a dictatorship and the attempt to build a new state on basis of democracy, rule of law and protecting minority rights is raising deep concerns among some of our neighbors. And perhaps watching the former dictator walk to the gallows for a crime he committed twenty five years ago made them think about how similar their history is to Saddam's and fear for their own heads and wonder what kind of concessions they'd have to make to keep their heads on their shoulders.
What's been going on since 2003 is that most of the neighbors want Iraq to fail and to do that they saw that feeding a proxy war using local surrogates and foreign terrorists was the best strategy to block the tide of change off their doors. In this manner the slower progress is being made in Iraq the longer their regimes can last, so why would anyone think those little tyrants like to see a democratic federal Iraq run by a constitution approved by the people!?
The Israeli-Palestinian issue offers a clear example of the effect of regional interference in the region; the players are almost exactly the same and their policy is pretty much the same as well in both cases.
The conflict is almost sixty years old and the Arab regimes still wouldn't accept Israel's existence. It is wrong to think that this only about disputed rights in land because the conflict is largely due to the nature of Israel's political system and the way of living which differ a lot from those in Arab countries.
Interference from Arab and Muslim countries has always been to keep the conflict alive if not to further complicate it, and the Palestinians themselves weakened their position and lost much by accepting involvement from other Arabs. Even the peace treaties that some had signed with Israel do not seem to reflect sincere interest in long-lasting peace.
Those regimes will keep on meddling in Iraq and the Palestinian territory and they will continue to fund and arm groups of extremists and do anything they can to kill any seeds of democracy.
Like we said many times before, a simple reading of the history of the region tells us to not trust the words of dictators and clerics, for words are inexpensive and clerics and dictators have plenty of words they are willing to use to buy time.
However I do think the Baghdad conference will be significant in another aspect and this would be stressing the reality that Iraq is a state equal to her neighbors and that in Baghdad there is an elected government representative of its people.
Insisting that the conference be in Baghdad and not somewhere else kind of sends a message that Iraq is not anyone's backyard and the government is not a bunch of dissidents living in exile and our neighbors will have to recognize this reality.
It is a sad fact that most of our Shia politicians often blame Syria and Saudi Arabia for violence in the country while remaining silent about Iran and the opposite is true when it comes to most Sunni politicians, so finally I hope that whoever's representing Baghdad in tomorrow's meeting will deal with all of the abusive neighbors equally.
Wednesday, March 07, 2007
Back to Politics!
The political scene in Iraq these days is registering a level of activity like we haven’t seen since right after the elections, when the blocs squabbled over who got to be the new premier.
Political alliances are being redrawn right now —and three developments are shaping the change and dominating local news headlines at stories of violence’s expense.
A new political bloc has emerged. It’s not a fourth bloc as Mohammed anticipated some time ago; it’s a union of, so far, two existing blocs. The core of the new movement is pretty much the same as what Mohammed expected, though. The Accord Front has announced it has joined the bloc led by former PM Ayad Allawi, forming what they refer to now as the “Iraqi National Front”. This new alliance has 69 seats in parliament and is likely to gain an additional 11 seats if the Dialogue Front of the nationalist Salih al-Mutlaq decides to join in, which is not unlikely.
It’s still not decided who is going to be the leader in the new bloc, and none of the leading figures involved has talked about this yet. However I suspect that this position will be filled by Allawi who, although his group has only 25 out of the 69 seats, was the one who came up with the idea in the first place, and his charisma, history in leadership and his nonsectarian attitude qualify him over the others.
The second development, which is far more significant than the first, just took place in the corridors of the United Iraqi Alliance, the main Shia bloc. This morning, in a frank challenge to ayatollah Sistani’s earlier call for preserving the UIA’s unity, the head of al-Fadheela party -which controls 15 of its 130 seats- declared independence from the Shia bloc and said his team now would act as an independent bloc within parliament.
While al-Fadheela members are talking about working on their own, there are some signs that they are holding behind-the-scenes talks with Allawi and the others; at least one lawmaker from al-Fadheela spoke to the local press about ongoing negotiations to join the new bloc.
Apparently there’s good chance they will indeed join ranks because Fadheela and Allawi’s party share more or less similar nationalistic and nonsectarian views and they know that they will not have enough power do anything if they go alone.
More over, Fadheela, while inside the UIA, did not occupy any post in Maliki’s cabinet, and its leaders probably think that they have a better chance of winning a post or two after the cabinet’s reshuffle if they join the “opposition” block.
Speaking of the reshuffle, it looks like about 10 ministers will be changed -mostly of civil services ministries- of which six are run by ministers from the Sadr movement.
The Sunni and Shia blocs responded in different ways to the planned reshuffle. On the one hand ,the UIA leaderships say they authorize Maliki to act as he sees appropriate in this regard, but the question remains whether the PM will use this authorization and the mounting pressure on the Sadrists to cut them to size and redistribute some of the ministries they control among other blocs. Nothing is for sure so far.
On the other hand, the Accord Front is persistently demanding a change in the defense ministry saying that the post is part of their quota and it should be their call whether to keep the current minister. Very strange indeed, because this minister is one of the very few that has so far shown competence and made remarkable progress in his area of responsibility.
Fortunately, Maliki doesn’t seem interested in replacing his defense minister, according to what a lawmaker close to the PM said to al-Sabah.
Back to the new bloc subject…
This item from al-Sharq al-Awsat implies that Allawi has been contacting at least one of the Kurdish parties, trying to persuade them to side with him:
This could mean that the purpose behind this movement is not limited to stronger opposition but goes further, to a project for building a political power that can outnumber the UIA in parliament. But there’s little reason to think the Kurds would want to be involved in a political confrontation with anyone in Baghdad as long as the interests of Kurdistan are not at stake.
Nothing is impossible in Iraq. Either way, it seems this is going to be interesting.
Political alliances are being redrawn right now —and three developments are shaping the change and dominating local news headlines at stories of violence’s expense.
A new political bloc has emerged. It’s not a fourth bloc as Mohammed anticipated some time ago; it’s a union of, so far, two existing blocs. The core of the new movement is pretty much the same as what Mohammed expected, though. The Accord Front has announced it has joined the bloc led by former PM Ayad Allawi, forming what they refer to now as the “Iraqi National Front”. This new alliance has 69 seats in parliament and is likely to gain an additional 11 seats if the Dialogue Front of the nationalist Salih al-Mutlaq decides to join in, which is not unlikely.
It’s still not decided who is going to be the leader in the new bloc, and none of the leading figures involved has talked about this yet. However I suspect that this position will be filled by Allawi who, although his group has only 25 out of the 69 seats, was the one who came up with the idea in the first place, and his charisma, history in leadership and his nonsectarian attitude qualify him over the others.
The second development, which is far more significant than the first, just took place in the corridors of the United Iraqi Alliance, the main Shia bloc. This morning, in a frank challenge to ayatollah Sistani’s earlier call for preserving the UIA’s unity, the head of al-Fadheela party -which controls 15 of its 130 seats- declared independence from the Shia bloc and said his team now would act as an independent bloc within parliament.
While al-Fadheela members are talking about working on their own, there are some signs that they are holding behind-the-scenes talks with Allawi and the others; at least one lawmaker from al-Fadheela spoke to the local press about ongoing negotiations to join the new bloc.
Apparently there’s good chance they will indeed join ranks because Fadheela and Allawi’s party share more or less similar nationalistic and nonsectarian views and they know that they will not have enough power do anything if they go alone.
More over, Fadheela, while inside the UIA, did not occupy any post in Maliki’s cabinet, and its leaders probably think that they have a better chance of winning a post or two after the cabinet’s reshuffle if they join the “opposition” block.
Speaking of the reshuffle, it looks like about 10 ministers will be changed -mostly of civil services ministries- of which six are run by ministers from the Sadr movement.
The Sunni and Shia blocs responded in different ways to the planned reshuffle. On the one hand ,the UIA leaderships say they authorize Maliki to act as he sees appropriate in this regard, but the question remains whether the PM will use this authorization and the mounting pressure on the Sadrists to cut them to size and redistribute some of the ministries they control among other blocs. Nothing is for sure so far.
On the other hand, the Accord Front is persistently demanding a change in the defense ministry saying that the post is part of their quota and it should be their call whether to keep the current minister. Very strange indeed, because this minister is one of the very few that has so far shown competence and made remarkable progress in his area of responsibility.
Fortunately, Maliki doesn’t seem interested in replacing his defense minister, according to what a lawmaker close to the PM said to al-Sabah.
Back to the new bloc subject…
This item from al-Sharq al-Awsat implies that Allawi has been contacting at least one of the Kurdish parties, trying to persuade them to side with him:
Fadhil Mirani, member of the political bureau of the KDP of Masoud Barzani, said it was still early to announce our position from this movement; we are waiting for President Barzani to return to discuss the subject and after that we’ll have to talk to the PUK of President Talbani to make a united decision for the best of the Iraqi people” and added “we stand with those who want to build Iraq save the country from this crisis and we will support any effort in this direction”
This could mean that the purpose behind this movement is not limited to stronger opposition but goes further, to a project for building a political power that can outnumber the UIA in parliament. But there’s little reason to think the Kurds would want to be involved in a political confrontation with anyone in Baghdad as long as the interests of Kurdistan are not at stake.
Nothing is impossible in Iraq. Either way, it seems this is going to be interesting.
Sunday, March 04, 2007
Street Justice.
As we noted more than once before, Operation “Imposing Law” is an escalating effort with military and political components. After the troops fixed their feet on the streets of Baghdad, PM Maliki and the troops are pushing forward with both components.
Politically, Maliki put an end to speculations about his real intentions of a cabinet reshuffle and announced that the reshuffle is going to happen within two weeks from now.
In his press conference this morning, Maliki also announced that the Supreme Judicial Council will be issuing warrants against a number of politicians and members of parliament who have connections to militant groups that are involved in attacks on civilians and security forces.
Meanwhile Iraqi and American forces are increasing their presence in and around Sadr city. Today hundreds of American and Iraqi solders swept through Jamila district just north of Sadr city. They searched homes and shops without meeting any resistance.
The Mehdi army is not responding to the raids with fire, but they are trying to undermine the security plan by spreading rumors about alleged crimes committed by US soldiers, specifically against the Shia. The latest of these rumors was a ridiculous one I heard yesterday from a taxi driver from Sadr city. His story, quite similar to one told by a Sadr city council member, is that US soldiers are raiding Shia homes, arresting innocent civilians, and then dumping them at night near strongholds of Sunni insurgents, blindfolded and handcuffed so that the insurgents would find them defenseless and slaughter them!
***
Violent incidents are still decreasing in number and impact in Baghdad. Yesterday for instance the only reported incident was the abduction of an adviser to the minister of defense by gunmen in western Baghdad. It was less than 24 hours until the security forces succeeded in freeing the abducted general and arresting 4 of his captors.
Elsewhere in the capital the troops are using not only guns and Humvees, but also shovels and bulldozers. In areas such as Karrada and Palestine Street Iraqi soldiers and workers of the Baghdad municipal services are working on removing trespasses on public property and irregular roadblocks set by locals at earlier times. The measure sparked anger and dismay among some people whose businesses were damaged because the bulldozers also removed irregular kiosks and stalls.
An Iraqi officer explained the decision yesterday by saying that those illegal roadblocks and trespasses were making it difficult for the troops to quickly reach areas where intervention is needed.
Other law enforcement officials are also getting more serious in doing their job. Traffic cops who would normally stop a suspicious vehicle only if it passed by their post are now riding their motorbikes and chasing suspected vehicles down highways and other streets.
This is an indication that Imposing Law does not mean only sending soldiers to kill terrorists. It is reaching out to deal with other aspects of mess and to counter relatively “benign” violations-like breaking the “odd and even” traffic rule, defensive irregular roadblocks and unlicensed kiosks and stalls-by providing protection for the personnel of civilian departments while they do their job.
Politically, Maliki put an end to speculations about his real intentions of a cabinet reshuffle and announced that the reshuffle is going to happen within two weeks from now.
In his press conference this morning, Maliki also announced that the Supreme Judicial Council will be issuing warrants against a number of politicians and members of parliament who have connections to militant groups that are involved in attacks on civilians and security forces.
Meanwhile Iraqi and American forces are increasing their presence in and around Sadr city. Today hundreds of American and Iraqi solders swept through Jamila district just north of Sadr city. They searched homes and shops without meeting any resistance.
The Mehdi army is not responding to the raids with fire, but they are trying to undermine the security plan by spreading rumors about alleged crimes committed by US soldiers, specifically against the Shia. The latest of these rumors was a ridiculous one I heard yesterday from a taxi driver from Sadr city. His story, quite similar to one told by a Sadr city council member, is that US soldiers are raiding Shia homes, arresting innocent civilians, and then dumping them at night near strongholds of Sunni insurgents, blindfolded and handcuffed so that the insurgents would find them defenseless and slaughter them!
***
Violent incidents are still decreasing in number and impact in Baghdad. Yesterday for instance the only reported incident was the abduction of an adviser to the minister of defense by gunmen in western Baghdad. It was less than 24 hours until the security forces succeeded in freeing the abducted general and arresting 4 of his captors.
Elsewhere in the capital the troops are using not only guns and Humvees, but also shovels and bulldozers. In areas such as Karrada and Palestine Street Iraqi soldiers and workers of the Baghdad municipal services are working on removing trespasses on public property and irregular roadblocks set by locals at earlier times. The measure sparked anger and dismay among some people whose businesses were damaged because the bulldozers also removed irregular kiosks and stalls.
An Iraqi officer explained the decision yesterday by saying that those illegal roadblocks and trespasses were making it difficult for the troops to quickly reach areas where intervention is needed.
Other law enforcement officials are also getting more serious in doing their job. Traffic cops who would normally stop a suspicious vehicle only if it passed by their post are now riding their motorbikes and chasing suspected vehicles down highways and other streets.
This is an indication that Imposing Law does not mean only sending soldiers to kill terrorists. It is reaching out to deal with other aspects of mess and to counter relatively “benign” violations-like breaking the “odd and even” traffic rule, defensive irregular roadblocks and unlicensed kiosks and stalls-by providing protection for the personnel of civilian departments while they do their job.
Thursday, March 01, 2007
Imposing Law enters week III
Operation “Imposing Law” continues in Baghdad. In contrast with previous operations to secure the city, this one is managing to not only keep the initial momentum, but the operation’s effects seem to be growing as well.
A few days ago the government announced a more traffic-related measures to support “Imposing Law” in Baghdad. Under the first order, it will be forbidden to park any private vehicles in the main streets of the city.
Under the second - a reinstating of an old order- vehicles with odd and even numbered plates would only be allowed on the streets on alternate days. This means that only half of the several hundred thousand of private vehicles will be on the streets on any day. The order applies to private vehicles only, but cuts the work involved in screening vehicles approximately in half.
Aside from security concerns, the order also reduces the huge traffic jams caused by the numerous checkpoints. The downside, if any, is being felt mostly by one particular class of Baghdadis: taxi drivers. They can now work only every other day and still have to live with sluggish traffic and expensive fuel.
Still, things are a long way from perfectly peaceful. Bombs continue to disrupt the calm of Baghdad. The suicide bombings carried out by al-Qaeda constitute the largest number of incidents. At the same time there has been a sharp decline in the number of bombings set off by remote control on the part of the regular insurgents.
As we noted in earlier reports, we feel safer about moving around in the city now than we did a month before. I have recently been to districts in Baghdad where a month or two ago I wouldn’t have thought of going to. In the last week or two I’ve showed my ID to soldiers and policemen in checkpoints dozens of times. A few months ago this was considered an extremely risky thing to do — especially for someone whose ID shows a name and profession such as mine. “Omar” is a pure Sunni name and everyone here knows that scores of young Baghdadi men were killed by death squads just because they had the name.
Numbers are always useful in assessing results of any effort, and the numbers so far are on the good guys’ side. I read today that the count of various death squads’ victims for this month is one half that of January, and little more than one third that of December of last year. This comes from the official figures reported by the Baghdad morgue.
The other number that’s become one of the important parameters for assessing the situation in the Baghdad is the number of displaced families that have returned to their homes since the beginning of Operation “Imposing Law.” This one too is giving a positive sign. The last official count by the authorities brought the total to little over 1,020 families in just two weeks according to Baghdad paper al-Mada.
* * * * *
While many Iraqi families are returning to the homes they once were forced to leave, there are also Baghdadis who are reopening their stores, ending the months they spent out of business because of violence and intimidation. Some streets that were virtually deserted a few months ago are slowly showing signs of returning to life.
The reopening stores even include some liquor shops! There are two stores on one street that I used to shop that closed early last year when their owners received death threats from the insurgents and the militias. Yesterday I walked through that street and, to my amazement, I found both stores open and back in business.
Of course the reopening of two liquor stores is no big deal by itself when we are talking about a city where thousands of businesses are still shuttered. I regard this as a further positive sign of a change in Baghdad’s daily life. It means that those shopkeepers are leaving their fear behind, and openly ignoring the threats of militias and insurgents who once ruled the streets and intimidated the people with threats and violence.
The results of Operation “Imposing Law” are not magical. We didn’t expect them to be magical. The commanders didn’t claim they’d be when the Operation began. Still these latest developments are certainly promising. And let’s not forget that what has been achieved so far was achieved while many thousands of the new troops assigned to Baghdad are yet to arrive.
A few days ago the government announced a more traffic-related measures to support “Imposing Law” in Baghdad. Under the first order, it will be forbidden to park any private vehicles in the main streets of the city.
Under the second - a reinstating of an old order- vehicles with odd and even numbered plates would only be allowed on the streets on alternate days. This means that only half of the several hundred thousand of private vehicles will be on the streets on any day. The order applies to private vehicles only, but cuts the work involved in screening vehicles approximately in half.
Aside from security concerns, the order also reduces the huge traffic jams caused by the numerous checkpoints. The downside, if any, is being felt mostly by one particular class of Baghdadis: taxi drivers. They can now work only every other day and still have to live with sluggish traffic and expensive fuel.
Still, things are a long way from perfectly peaceful. Bombs continue to disrupt the calm of Baghdad. The suicide bombings carried out by al-Qaeda constitute the largest number of incidents. At the same time there has been a sharp decline in the number of bombings set off by remote control on the part of the regular insurgents.
As we noted in earlier reports, we feel safer about moving around in the city now than we did a month before. I have recently been to districts in Baghdad where a month or two ago I wouldn’t have thought of going to. In the last week or two I’ve showed my ID to soldiers and policemen in checkpoints dozens of times. A few months ago this was considered an extremely risky thing to do — especially for someone whose ID shows a name and profession such as mine. “Omar” is a pure Sunni name and everyone here knows that scores of young Baghdadi men were killed by death squads just because they had the name.
Numbers are always useful in assessing results of any effort, and the numbers so far are on the good guys’ side. I read today that the count of various death squads’ victims for this month is one half that of January, and little more than one third that of December of last year. This comes from the official figures reported by the Baghdad morgue.
The other number that’s become one of the important parameters for assessing the situation in the Baghdad is the number of displaced families that have returned to their homes since the beginning of Operation “Imposing Law.” This one too is giving a positive sign. The last official count by the authorities brought the total to little over 1,020 families in just two weeks according to Baghdad paper al-Mada.
* * * * *
While many Iraqi families are returning to the homes they once were forced to leave, there are also Baghdadis who are reopening their stores, ending the months they spent out of business because of violence and intimidation. Some streets that were virtually deserted a few months ago are slowly showing signs of returning to life.
The reopening stores even include some liquor shops! There are two stores on one street that I used to shop that closed early last year when their owners received death threats from the insurgents and the militias. Yesterday I walked through that street and, to my amazement, I found both stores open and back in business.
Of course the reopening of two liquor stores is no big deal by itself when we are talking about a city where thousands of businesses are still shuttered. I regard this as a further positive sign of a change in Baghdad’s daily life. It means that those shopkeepers are leaving their fear behind, and openly ignoring the threats of militias and insurgents who once ruled the streets and intimidated the people with threats and violence.
The results of Operation “Imposing Law” are not magical. We didn’t expect them to be magical. The commanders didn’t claim they’d be when the Operation began. Still these latest developments are certainly promising. And let’s not forget that what has been achieved so far was achieved while many thousands of the new troops assigned to Baghdad are yet to arrive.
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
The more the merrier...
Advancing a political track is indispensable for a stable future for Iraq for sure. Experts and observers differ in their suggestions for solutions; some think politics must be given the priority while others insist the solution is military, but in fact both tracks are essential and should go hand in hand without giving one track a priority over the other even though one or the other sometimes seem to pose the greater challenge.
This is the case in Iraq in particular and in the middle east in general due to historical considerations concerning the dominant ideologies and ways of thinking which, over centuries, produced factions that do not believe in dialog is a way to finding solutions, in other words, extremists and radicals.
And those I assert, you cannot reason with and are the kind of people with whom diplomacy and dialog is not valid method for negotiation. This is the case for one reason; the extremists believe that what they have and what they believe in is a heavenly divine path that cannot and must not be subject for compromise. This means dialog in their opinion would be only about making the other party submit to their ways whether willingly or at gunpoint.
This means for anyone to hold real dialog and rely on diplomacy as a way to find common ground the first and most essential step would be to identify a counterpart that is willing to hold real dialog, or else the effort would be a waste, just like trying to collect wind with a net, as we say here.
However, the good thing is that extremists are never a majority of the population even though there exist foci of extremism within governments which makes them more dangerous. Still in general, there is an emerging trend of rational thinking that is growing in the region after decades of relying solely on arms—some factions are absorbing the fact that using power alone, without dialog, had not taken us anywhere.
The Iraqi issue requires dedicated diplomatic efforts on the local and regional levels and here I'd like to talk more about the indigenous political effort in Iraq. Political division had often led to infighting that had almost consumed the entire country more than once. Given the impact of politics on life in Iraq, there must be a way to utilize politics in a way that moves the country forward instead of destroying it.
In Iraq, one of the biggest problems we had after we were freed from dictatorship was the division of the political scene along ethnic and sectarian lines which is a result of the negative legacy of the past which was full of oppression and abuse of rights of large components of the society. That's why gathering around the ethnic or sectarian identity became the defensive policy of choice, and the choice was made long before the fall of dictatorship.
Of course this wasn't what we aspired for but more like an evil we had to take. Thus the political scene after the first elections became dominated by three major blocs that represented the three major components of the people; Shia, Sunni and Kurds. The rise of these three formations was on the expense of the nationalist bloc which occupies only 10% of the parliament represented by the 'Iraqi Slate' that does not seek association with a particular sect or ethnic group.
Oddly, yet not unexpected, while so many voters were sympathetic to this political group, the violence and fear that accompanied the formation of the new state of Iraq pushed the voters to offer their votes to the other three blocs.
Now after two rounds of elections many of patriots endorse the thought that the political crisis we're going through and the deterioration this crisis led to will not be undone without the dissolution of the three major blocs.
This thought or call although a noble one in spirit that I wish to see it become true, is not practical at the moment because it takes a lot of time to reform the perception of the public. And this takes, along with time, a healthy environment free of pressure and intimidation that allows for an independent reevaluation of the situation by the public.
This does not mean stagnation will last long; it is possible within the limits of the current situation for a fourth bloc of comparable weight to emerge, to which again I think the 'Iraqi Slate' is going to provide the cornerstone.
But some might ask: what's good in having fourth bloc?
The point here is that so far any two blocs can align together and join forces against the third to sideline it, similar to what happened in 2005 when the structure of the government gave rise to the commonly used term of "Shia-Kurdish led government" and this continues to give the negative impression that a large component of the population is left away.
This happened because all of the three blocs are built around a sect or an ethnicity instead of a political platform.
If the underway efforts-which received a boost by Allawi's return to Baghdad-continue at the same pace then it won't be very difficult to form such a bloc that can create some sort of much needed balance in the political process.
The word about efforts to form a new bloc(s) is not a secret anymore and I think the time is good for trying because many people from all three components are not the least satisfied with the performance of the government.
As we hear now, the invitation is open to all political powers; whether parties or individuals, whether in or outside the parliament to unite under the umbrella of the new bloc.
The first reactions are quite interesting and we're hearing of independent lawmakers from the UIA considering the invitation. This coincides with news about independent lawmakers from the UIA and Accord Front forming two independent blocs.
I don't see these as 'breaking away' as much as an attempt to go back to a more "Iraqi" personality than the three mother-blocs.
I'm trying to picture Iraq's political scene a few years from now; with four blocs each having 20-30 % of the seats the game will be different and it will have a fresh new start with new rules. First, no two blocs would then be able to monopolize power and it would require the agreement of at least 3 out of 4 blocs for decisions concerning vital issues to be made, and second, I think the presence of a major bloc with no sectarian or ethnic stamp would put pressure on the other three blocs to revise their programs to include more reason and less emotions.
I know that with more players involved in the process naturally we'd expect a greater chance for political paralysis because the more people involved, the more difficult it is to have them find consensus but after a second thought it might be possible that with four blocs-with no huge differences in size-the chance for political paralysis will be in fact less than if there were only three of them because no single bloc will have the capacity to block the decision-making process and when any three blocs can have enough representation to pass legislations and make decisions, I think all of the blocs will show more flexibility toward making concessions in order to avoid being left away.
This is not our ultimate ambition for political reform in Iraq but it just might be the practical and realistic step for now.
This is the case in Iraq in particular and in the middle east in general due to historical considerations concerning the dominant ideologies and ways of thinking which, over centuries, produced factions that do not believe in dialog is a way to finding solutions, in other words, extremists and radicals.
And those I assert, you cannot reason with and are the kind of people with whom diplomacy and dialog is not valid method for negotiation. This is the case for one reason; the extremists believe that what they have and what they believe in is a heavenly divine path that cannot and must not be subject for compromise. This means dialog in their opinion would be only about making the other party submit to their ways whether willingly or at gunpoint.
This means for anyone to hold real dialog and rely on diplomacy as a way to find common ground the first and most essential step would be to identify a counterpart that is willing to hold real dialog, or else the effort would be a waste, just like trying to collect wind with a net, as we say here.
However, the good thing is that extremists are never a majority of the population even though there exist foci of extremism within governments which makes them more dangerous. Still in general, there is an emerging trend of rational thinking that is growing in the region after decades of relying solely on arms—some factions are absorbing the fact that using power alone, without dialog, had not taken us anywhere.
The Iraqi issue requires dedicated diplomatic efforts on the local and regional levels and here I'd like to talk more about the indigenous political effort in Iraq. Political division had often led to infighting that had almost consumed the entire country more than once. Given the impact of politics on life in Iraq, there must be a way to utilize politics in a way that moves the country forward instead of destroying it.
In Iraq, one of the biggest problems we had after we were freed from dictatorship was the division of the political scene along ethnic and sectarian lines which is a result of the negative legacy of the past which was full of oppression and abuse of rights of large components of the society. That's why gathering around the ethnic or sectarian identity became the defensive policy of choice, and the choice was made long before the fall of dictatorship.
Of course this wasn't what we aspired for but more like an evil we had to take. Thus the political scene after the first elections became dominated by three major blocs that represented the three major components of the people; Shia, Sunni and Kurds. The rise of these three formations was on the expense of the nationalist bloc which occupies only 10% of the parliament represented by the 'Iraqi Slate' that does not seek association with a particular sect or ethnic group.
Oddly, yet not unexpected, while so many voters were sympathetic to this political group, the violence and fear that accompanied the formation of the new state of Iraq pushed the voters to offer their votes to the other three blocs.
Now after two rounds of elections many of patriots endorse the thought that the political crisis we're going through and the deterioration this crisis led to will not be undone without the dissolution of the three major blocs.
This thought or call although a noble one in spirit that I wish to see it become true, is not practical at the moment because it takes a lot of time to reform the perception of the public. And this takes, along with time, a healthy environment free of pressure and intimidation that allows for an independent reevaluation of the situation by the public.
This does not mean stagnation will last long; it is possible within the limits of the current situation for a fourth bloc of comparable weight to emerge, to which again I think the 'Iraqi Slate' is going to provide the cornerstone.
But some might ask: what's good in having fourth bloc?
The point here is that so far any two blocs can align together and join forces against the third to sideline it, similar to what happened in 2005 when the structure of the government gave rise to the commonly used term of "Shia-Kurdish led government" and this continues to give the negative impression that a large component of the population is left away.
This happened because all of the three blocs are built around a sect or an ethnicity instead of a political platform.
If the underway efforts-which received a boost by Allawi's return to Baghdad-continue at the same pace then it won't be very difficult to form such a bloc that can create some sort of much needed balance in the political process.
The word about efforts to form a new bloc(s) is not a secret anymore and I think the time is good for trying because many people from all three components are not the least satisfied with the performance of the government.
As we hear now, the invitation is open to all political powers; whether parties or individuals, whether in or outside the parliament to unite under the umbrella of the new bloc.
The first reactions are quite interesting and we're hearing of independent lawmakers from the UIA considering the invitation. This coincides with news about independent lawmakers from the UIA and Accord Front forming two independent blocs.
I don't see these as 'breaking away' as much as an attempt to go back to a more "Iraqi" personality than the three mother-blocs.
I'm trying to picture Iraq's political scene a few years from now; with four blocs each having 20-30 % of the seats the game will be different and it will have a fresh new start with new rules. First, no two blocs would then be able to monopolize power and it would require the agreement of at least 3 out of 4 blocs for decisions concerning vital issues to be made, and second, I think the presence of a major bloc with no sectarian or ethnic stamp would put pressure on the other three blocs to revise their programs to include more reason and less emotions.
I know that with more players involved in the process naturally we'd expect a greater chance for political paralysis because the more people involved, the more difficult it is to have them find consensus but after a second thought it might be possible that with four blocs-with no huge differences in size-the chance for political paralysis will be in fact less than if there were only three of them because no single bloc will have the capacity to block the decision-making process and when any three blocs can have enough representation to pass legislations and make decisions, I think all of the blocs will show more flexibility toward making concessions in order to avoid being left away.
This is not our ultimate ambition for political reform in Iraq but it just might be the practical and realistic step for now.
Friday, February 23, 2007
Operation Baghdad: Week II
It's been less than two weeks since the Baghdad operation was officially launched. This period, though short, has been full of events; both good and bad ones.
Here we are not in a rush to judge the operation unlike some media or politicians who seek anything they can use to serve their agendas. We, Baghdadis, only want this operation to succeed and we still have some patience to show.
These days I make sure that I have daily tour in Baghdad, covering both Karkh and Resafa (west and east) and these tours aren't exactly boring because there are always new things to see.
The buildup of troops in the capital seems to be incremental and increasing by the day giving a steadily growing sense of the seriousness of the operation. Yesterday during my tour with some friends we were stopped to be searched seven times during about only two hours; five times in Karkh and two in Resafa. The search typically includes verifying the vehicle registration papers, looking for guns and munitions or suspicious objects, destination of the passenger/driver and often their identity cards. In general the security personnel are polite in their dealing with people they search and some of them even end the procedure with an apology for the inconvenience.
We are getting used to the procedures at checkpoints; keep your hands visible on the wheel, keep your papers close to you, prepare to open the trunk and if it's getting dark then turn the headlights off and turn the reading light on.
I hear a lot from people how they want to see checkpoint search each and every vehicle on the street even their own because we know that the more effective checkpoints are the more secure the city would be.
Yesterday I saw the national police units using new armored vehicles (I guess they are Reva's) that look much more professional and effective than ordinary SUV's or pickup trucks. Actually it would be great if all national police units get these unique vehicles because then both imposters and corrupt officers would have little chance to carry out attacks on civilians in the name of the corps.
I also noticed that some checkpoints are becoming better organized than before; first a soldier or a cop would allow cars to pass one lane at a time, then his colleagues would carry out the regular search and finally traffic cops would do their own part of the searching.
The government is meanwhile issuing a bunch of new orders to empower the plan; among those orders are:
-Offices of political parties are not allowed to possess heavy weapons for defense.
-Vehicles or buildings from which fire is opened on civilians or security forces will be confiscated and their inhabitants/drivers arrested.
-The selling of petroleum products in the black market is prohibited.
In fact, I could see American armored vehicles parked in front of a few offices of political parties yesterday but I don't know yet if that presence was in order to impose the new order or to provide security for these offices and compensate for the absence of heavy weapons.
Military wise the spokesman for the operation said the first week left 42 militants killed and over 250 militants and suspects captured and good amounts of weapons and munitions were found. The troops had also defused 13 car bombs and many IED's.
The best part of the results remains the return of displaced families to their homes; the latest count for this shows that more than 600 families have returned so far.
While the return went with little problems for most families some forty families are complaining about receiving new threats from terrorists immediately after they returned to al-Adl district.
More occupied mosques are also being returned to their original keepers and earlier today Sunni and Shia worshippers gathered to hold joint prayers in several places in Baghdad as we saw on TV.
Last week, Maliki made his first public appearance on the streets of Baghdad when he visited the area of Palestine Street in Resafa the day that followed the bombings in the New Baghdad district. The same day general Aboud Qanbar, the commander of the operation walked in Haifa Street.
These public appearances are apparently part of a PR campaign to show that senior officials are not afraid of leaving the green zone anymore, and frankly this has left a good impression among the public.
The terrorists counterattack is a dirty chemical one this time.
Nothing surprising about it though—their old master had along history of using chemical weapons against unarmed civilians and so we'd expect the minions to use the same evil ways to mass murder and terrorize our people.
The other counterattack came sadly from within the government and parliament and used the media as a weapon through spreading allegations of rape to undermine the security plan. This attack, though not as deadly as poisonous gas, could be much more harmful on the long run.
Those allegations (some are being retracted now) were used to call for stopping the security operation in parts of Baghdad, and this in my opinion is not a justified call even if the allegations were true. I mean we can't just simply generalize the accusation; thousands of patrols, raids and searches were conducted last week and one ill-doing must not justify for the halting of thousands of good peacekeeping missions.
In this regard it's worth mentioning that the judiciary is already trying to provide the required legal component to the operation, al-Mada reports:
Calling for halting the operation isn't realistic and is of no good to us, I think asking for more judges and a bigger role for the judiciary in supervising the work of the military would've been a better demand; one that can really help the people.
Here we are not in a rush to judge the operation unlike some media or politicians who seek anything they can use to serve their agendas. We, Baghdadis, only want this operation to succeed and we still have some patience to show.
These days I make sure that I have daily tour in Baghdad, covering both Karkh and Resafa (west and east) and these tours aren't exactly boring because there are always new things to see.
The buildup of troops in the capital seems to be incremental and increasing by the day giving a steadily growing sense of the seriousness of the operation. Yesterday during my tour with some friends we were stopped to be searched seven times during about only two hours; five times in Karkh and two in Resafa. The search typically includes verifying the vehicle registration papers, looking for guns and munitions or suspicious objects, destination of the passenger/driver and often their identity cards. In general the security personnel are polite in their dealing with people they search and some of them even end the procedure with an apology for the inconvenience.
We are getting used to the procedures at checkpoints; keep your hands visible on the wheel, keep your papers close to you, prepare to open the trunk and if it's getting dark then turn the headlights off and turn the reading light on.
I hear a lot from people how they want to see checkpoint search each and every vehicle on the street even their own because we know that the more effective checkpoints are the more secure the city would be.
Yesterday I saw the national police units using new armored vehicles (I guess they are Reva's) that look much more professional and effective than ordinary SUV's or pickup trucks. Actually it would be great if all national police units get these unique vehicles because then both imposters and corrupt officers would have little chance to carry out attacks on civilians in the name of the corps.
I also noticed that some checkpoints are becoming better organized than before; first a soldier or a cop would allow cars to pass one lane at a time, then his colleagues would carry out the regular search and finally traffic cops would do their own part of the searching.
The government is meanwhile issuing a bunch of new orders to empower the plan; among those orders are:
-Offices of political parties are not allowed to possess heavy weapons for defense.
-Vehicles or buildings from which fire is opened on civilians or security forces will be confiscated and their inhabitants/drivers arrested.
-The selling of petroleum products in the black market is prohibited.
In fact, I could see American armored vehicles parked in front of a few offices of political parties yesterday but I don't know yet if that presence was in order to impose the new order or to provide security for these offices and compensate for the absence of heavy weapons.
Military wise the spokesman for the operation said the first week left 42 militants killed and over 250 militants and suspects captured and good amounts of weapons and munitions were found. The troops had also defused 13 car bombs and many IED's.
The best part of the results remains the return of displaced families to their homes; the latest count for this shows that more than 600 families have returned so far.
While the return went with little problems for most families some forty families are complaining about receiving new threats from terrorists immediately after they returned to al-Adl district.
More occupied mosques are also being returned to their original keepers and earlier today Sunni and Shia worshippers gathered to hold joint prayers in several places in Baghdad as we saw on TV.
Last week, Maliki made his first public appearance on the streets of Baghdad when he visited the area of Palestine Street in Resafa the day that followed the bombings in the New Baghdad district. The same day general Aboud Qanbar, the commander of the operation walked in Haifa Street.
These public appearances are apparently part of a PR campaign to show that senior officials are not afraid of leaving the green zone anymore, and frankly this has left a good impression among the public.
The terrorists counterattack is a dirty chemical one this time.
Nothing surprising about it though—their old master had along history of using chemical weapons against unarmed civilians and so we'd expect the minions to use the same evil ways to mass murder and terrorize our people.
The other counterattack came sadly from within the government and parliament and used the media as a weapon through spreading allegations of rape to undermine the security plan. This attack, though not as deadly as poisonous gas, could be much more harmful on the long run.
Those allegations (some are being retracted now) were used to call for stopping the security operation in parts of Baghdad, and this in my opinion is not a justified call even if the allegations were true. I mean we can't just simply generalize the accusation; thousands of patrols, raids and searches were conducted last week and one ill-doing must not justify for the halting of thousands of good peacekeeping missions.
In this regard it's worth mentioning that the judiciary is already trying to provide the required legal component to the operation, al-Mada reports:
The supreme judicial council assigned nine judges, nine representatives of the general prosecutor and fifteen magistrates the task of visiting designated detention facilities to interrogate suspects. The source added that the council demanded that the interior and defense ministries commit to show detainees before a magistrate within 24 hours of the arrest…when the magistrate orders keeping the detainee in custody no other authority has the right to release him, and when the magistrate orders releasing the detainee through paying a bail no other authority shall continue his detention, unless the detainee is wanted for other charges.
Calling for halting the operation isn't realistic and is of no good to us, I think asking for more judges and a bigger role for the judiciary in supervising the work of the military would've been a better demand; one that can really help the people.
Monday, February 19, 2007
Bombs strike again but hope remains.
As we expected in the last post, the terrorists committed another crime against civilians by detonating two bombs in a market area.
Although soldiers and policemen are filling the streets, the terrorists are too coward to face the troops and choose to massacre unarmed civilians instead. What are they trying to prove with these cowardly acts? They can’t defeat the troops, so they attack civilians to discredit the security plan. But I don’t think such attacks can change the course of events on the long term; the Baghdad plan is a strategic effort that will go on for months, and time doesn’t seem to be on the terrorists’ side right now.
Today there was fighting in the neighborhoods around us and there were several attacks in other parts of Baghdad. It looks like some militants consider that sitting back and waiting is not an option and so they are trying to break the siege. The fighting was fierce and gunship helicopters circled at low altitude over the fighting zone and adjacent areas.
The sky of Baghdad is a story by itself—the city is being watched from above at several levels; from helicopters flying just above rooftops to various types of surveillance drones -which Baghdadis collectively refer to as “the fly” because of the buzzing sound- that remain in the air for hours, to another type of surveillance aircrafts that fly silently at higher altitudes and I suspect are also unmanned.
Above those flies an assortment of fighter jets, and sometimes heavy bombers.
All in all it’d be true to say that the sky is full of eyes and guns.
Although attacks happen here and there, the general feeling is still closer to hope and appreciation of the plan than pessimism. More families are returning to the homes they were once forced to leave, and we’re talking about some of the most dangerous districts such as Ghazaliya and Haifa Street.
Al-Sabah reports that yesterday alone 327 families returned home and that the scene of vans loaded with furniture of refugees leaving Baghdad is no more. There were times when the average was around 20 a day. The 327 figure brought the total to more than 500 families across Baghdad.
Al-Hurra TV aired a report on the story and interviewed some of the returning Baghdadis, one man said “those who returned earlier and saw the change in the situation called us and encouraged us to return, and I too will encourage the rest to come back”. The report showed those families asking the army to stay and not abandon their neighborhood, and showed the officer in charge giving his number to the locals so that they can contact him directly in case of emergency.
Looking at the relative increase in the number of attacks and their geographic extent one can expect the coming days to bring more escalation, but with the amount of power available for US and Iraqi troops I think the bad guys will not be able to achieve much.
Although soldiers and policemen are filling the streets, the terrorists are too coward to face the troops and choose to massacre unarmed civilians instead. What are they trying to prove with these cowardly acts? They can’t defeat the troops, so they attack civilians to discredit the security plan. But I don’t think such attacks can change the course of events on the long term; the Baghdad plan is a strategic effort that will go on for months, and time doesn’t seem to be on the terrorists’ side right now.
Today there was fighting in the neighborhoods around us and there were several attacks in other parts of Baghdad. It looks like some militants consider that sitting back and waiting is not an option and so they are trying to break the siege. The fighting was fierce and gunship helicopters circled at low altitude over the fighting zone and adjacent areas.
The sky of Baghdad is a story by itself—the city is being watched from above at several levels; from helicopters flying just above rooftops to various types of surveillance drones -which Baghdadis collectively refer to as “the fly” because of the buzzing sound- that remain in the air for hours, to another type of surveillance aircrafts that fly silently at higher altitudes and I suspect are also unmanned.
Above those flies an assortment of fighter jets, and sometimes heavy bombers.
All in all it’d be true to say that the sky is full of eyes and guns.
Although attacks happen here and there, the general feeling is still closer to hope and appreciation of the plan than pessimism. More families are returning to the homes they were once forced to leave, and we’re talking about some of the most dangerous districts such as Ghazaliya and Haifa Street.
Al-Sabah reports that yesterday alone 327 families returned home and that the scene of vans loaded with furniture of refugees leaving Baghdad is no more. There were times when the average was around 20 a day. The 327 figure brought the total to more than 500 families across Baghdad.
Al-Hurra TV aired a report on the story and interviewed some of the returning Baghdadis, one man said “those who returned earlier and saw the change in the situation called us and encouraged us to return, and I too will encourage the rest to come back”. The report showed those families asking the army to stay and not abandon their neighborhood, and showed the officer in charge giving his number to the locals so that they can contact him directly in case of emergency.
Looking at the relative increase in the number of attacks and their geographic extent one can expect the coming days to bring more escalation, but with the amount of power available for US and Iraqi troops I think the bad guys will not be able to achieve much.
Saturday, February 17, 2007
Attacks in Baghdad down by 80%
Since the multiple bombings in Shroja market district on the 12th, Baghdad hasn’t seen any major attacks and there’s a tangible decrease in all kinds of attacks.
Not only official statements say so (Defense ministry officials said today that attacks are down by 80% in Baghdad). It’s a reality I live in nowadays, at least in my neighborhood and its surroundings. It is also what I hear from friends and relatives in other parts of the city.
We are hearing fewer explosions and less gunfire now than two weeks ago and that, in Baghdad, qualifies as quiet.
I agree with what some experts say about this lull in violence being the result of militants keeping their heads down for a while. It is also possibly the result of the flight of the commanders of militant groups. Grunts left without planners, money or leaders wouldn’t want to do much on their own.
During my tour in Baghdad today I had to pull over to be searched at several checkpoints — something that has rarely happened to me before. When you are searched soldiers or policemen check the identity cards of passengers, and the registration papers of the vehicle along with a thorough physical search. Checkpoints deal even more strictly with large vans and cargo trucks.
The interesting thing about new checkpoints is the constant shifting of their location. One hour the checkpoint would be here and two hours later it would relocate to another position within the area. I think this helps security forces avoid becoming targets instead of hunters.
In addition to soldiers and policemen, most checkpoints have one or more traffic policemen reportedly being equipped with laptops that enable them to flag suspected vehicles by offering instant access to vehicle-registration databases.
Side by side with new security efforts is a campaign to clean and redecorate many streets, circles and parks in Baghdad. New trees are planted and damaged street medians and sidewalks are being refurbished. This offers a small yet much needed breeze of hope and normalcy to the traumatized city.
The most significant and encouraging development is certainly this report from al-Sabah:
The report adds that Maliki ordered that the Bab al-Muadam and al-Shuhada bridges on the Tigris be reopened to traffic next week. This decision came in response to the “notable increase in traffic activity which in turn is a result of the growing feeling of safety”.
Confirming what we said earlier about the recovery of civilian activity, the spokesman said “most stores in the Alawi al-Hilla districts have reopened after times when this area was a scene for repeated terrorist attacks”.
As the effort continues in Baghdad, four other provinces are launching simultaneous plans to support operation ‘Imposing the Law’. Officials in the provinces of Diwaniya, Salahaddin, Wasit and Babil announced that the security forces are implementing a security plan to support and empower the ongoing operation in Baghdad, and to deal with the threat of possible infiltration by terrorists coming from Baghdad.
The progress made so far invites hope and optimism, but it’s still too early to celebrate. Terrorists will keep trying to carry out attacks similar to those in Sadriya or Shorja. They want sow as much death and destruction as they can in order to shake the people’s confidence in the security plan. Such criminals attacks are still quite possible in Baghdad, but even if happen we must not let that stop us from pursuing the objectives of our efforts to stop the death and deterioration, to turn the tide and make progress.
Not only official statements say so (Defense ministry officials said today that attacks are down by 80% in Baghdad). It’s a reality I live in nowadays, at least in my neighborhood and its surroundings. It is also what I hear from friends and relatives in other parts of the city.
We are hearing fewer explosions and less gunfire now than two weeks ago and that, in Baghdad, qualifies as quiet.
I agree with what some experts say about this lull in violence being the result of militants keeping their heads down for a while. It is also possibly the result of the flight of the commanders of militant groups. Grunts left without planners, money or leaders wouldn’t want to do much on their own.
During my tour in Baghdad today I had to pull over to be searched at several checkpoints — something that has rarely happened to me before. When you are searched soldiers or policemen check the identity cards of passengers, and the registration papers of the vehicle along with a thorough physical search. Checkpoints deal even more strictly with large vans and cargo trucks.
The interesting thing about new checkpoints is the constant shifting of their location. One hour the checkpoint would be here and two hours later it would relocate to another position within the area. I think this helps security forces avoid becoming targets instead of hunters.
In addition to soldiers and policemen, most checkpoints have one or more traffic policemen reportedly being equipped with laptops that enable them to flag suspected vehicles by offering instant access to vehicle-registration databases.
Side by side with new security efforts is a campaign to clean and redecorate many streets, circles and parks in Baghdad. New trees are planted and damaged street medians and sidewalks are being refurbished. This offers a small yet much needed breeze of hope and normalcy to the traumatized city.
The most significant and encouraging development is certainly this report from al-Sabah:
Brigadier Qasim Ata, an authorized Baghdad Operation spokesman, told al-Sabah that for the 3rd day in a row dozens of displaced families are returning to their homes. 35 families returned in Madain, 7 in hay al-I’ilam and small numbers of families in various districts of Baghdad.Later reports in the local media indicate that the total number of families that returned home is as high as 130 families across the city, including several families in the, until recently, hopelessly violent district of Hay al-Adl.
The report adds that Maliki ordered that the Bab al-Muadam and al-Shuhada bridges on the Tigris be reopened to traffic next week. This decision came in response to the “notable increase in traffic activity which in turn is a result of the growing feeling of safety”.
Confirming what we said earlier about the recovery of civilian activity, the spokesman said “most stores in the Alawi al-Hilla districts have reopened after times when this area was a scene for repeated terrorist attacks”.
As the effort continues in Baghdad, four other provinces are launching simultaneous plans to support operation ‘Imposing the Law’. Officials in the provinces of Diwaniya, Salahaddin, Wasit and Babil announced that the security forces are implementing a security plan to support and empower the ongoing operation in Baghdad, and to deal with the threat of possible infiltration by terrorists coming from Baghdad.
The progress made so far invites hope and optimism, but it’s still too early to celebrate. Terrorists will keep trying to carry out attacks similar to those in Sadriya or Shorja. They want sow as much death and destruction as they can in order to shake the people’s confidence in the security plan. Such criminals attacks are still quite possible in Baghdad, but even if happen we must not let that stop us from pursuing the objectives of our efforts to stop the death and deterioration, to turn the tide and make progress.
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Operation Baghdad Update.
After being technically in progress for about over a week, Operation Imposing the Law officially started yesterday.
Al-Maliki who's been on a tour in the mid-southern region announced the beginning of the operation from Kerbala. This choice I think delivers two messages; first it looks that Maliki was trying to show that the plan is solid enough and could go on without his immediate supervision and presence in Baghdad and that the military commanders are operating without interference from politicians. And second I think he wanted to say that even though the focus has been in Baghdad for months, the situation elsewhere was not ignored; and this part could be seen in the tough-worded warnings he made to local officials and militants alike.
First he gave militants in Kerbala 48 hours to disarm or face the consequences and then turned to the local officials and told them if they couldn't do their job right they'd better step down and let someone better take their place.
The Kerbala provincial administration's reputation isn't quite impressive when it comes to corruption and involvement in violence and Maliki didn't forget to give a stern warning against corruption calling corruption a crime just as serious as terrorism.
Back in Baghdad the most significant raid conducted yesterday was the one on Buratha mosque, one of the most important Shia mosques in Baghdad which is also considered a SCIRI territory.
The raid ended without blood but the preacher of the mosque, a lawmaker from the SCIRI, expressed his dismay about the raid "because it was American soldiers who searched the mosque" and this seems to be one of the changes in rules of engagement. I recall that there was some kind of a rule that said only Iraqi soldiers or police were allowed to walk into places of worship while American troops would have to stay outside.
This raid too is of political significance as it can be used to prove to that the operation is impartial and not directed against one sect without the other.
On the streets, checkpoints and roadblocks are becoming increasingly serious and strict in doing their job; soldiers and policemen are sparing no vehicles or convoys from searching and I personally saw a case yesterday where an ambulance driver tried to rush his vehicle through a checkpoint but the soldiers ordered him to stop and let him pass only after they checked the inside of the vehicle finding only a civilian medical emergency.
Strict checkpoints always mean slow traffic and inconvenient delays for Baghdadis but this downside is welcome when these security measures make the streets safer.
Despite the traffic jams and though this is the largest deployment for troops in the capital, daily life and civilian activity-contrary to what was expected-still continues at a rather normal level, unlike previous crackdowns where life came to near paralysis.
Meanwhile a new bird appeared in the sky; not exactly new but one that's been absent for a long time; since the end of major operations in 2003.
In fact this is the first time ever that I see the B-1 flying over Baghdad. Since Tuesday, the long-range huge bomber appeared several times over the city spending as long as 75 minutes in some cases. Unfortunately with only 3x zoom this is the closest I could get.
Al-Maliki who's been on a tour in the mid-southern region announced the beginning of the operation from Kerbala. This choice I think delivers two messages; first it looks that Maliki was trying to show that the plan is solid enough and could go on without his immediate supervision and presence in Baghdad and that the military commanders are operating without interference from politicians. And second I think he wanted to say that even though the focus has been in Baghdad for months, the situation elsewhere was not ignored; and this part could be seen in the tough-worded warnings he made to local officials and militants alike.
First he gave militants in Kerbala 48 hours to disarm or face the consequences and then turned to the local officials and told them if they couldn't do their job right they'd better step down and let someone better take their place.
The Kerbala provincial administration's reputation isn't quite impressive when it comes to corruption and involvement in violence and Maliki didn't forget to give a stern warning against corruption calling corruption a crime just as serious as terrorism.
Back in Baghdad the most significant raid conducted yesterday was the one on Buratha mosque, one of the most important Shia mosques in Baghdad which is also considered a SCIRI territory.
The raid ended without blood but the preacher of the mosque, a lawmaker from the SCIRI, expressed his dismay about the raid "because it was American soldiers who searched the mosque" and this seems to be one of the changes in rules of engagement. I recall that there was some kind of a rule that said only Iraqi soldiers or police were allowed to walk into places of worship while American troops would have to stay outside.
This raid too is of political significance as it can be used to prove to that the operation is impartial and not directed against one sect without the other.
On the streets, checkpoints and roadblocks are becoming increasingly serious and strict in doing their job; soldiers and policemen are sparing no vehicles or convoys from searching and I personally saw a case yesterday where an ambulance driver tried to rush his vehicle through a checkpoint but the soldiers ordered him to stop and let him pass only after they checked the inside of the vehicle finding only a civilian medical emergency.
Strict checkpoints always mean slow traffic and inconvenient delays for Baghdadis but this downside is welcome when these security measures make the streets safer.
Despite the traffic jams and though this is the largest deployment for troops in the capital, daily life and civilian activity-contrary to what was expected-still continues at a rather normal level, unlike previous crackdowns where life came to near paralysis.
Meanwhile a new bird appeared in the sky; not exactly new but one that's been absent for a long time; since the end of major operations in 2003.
In fact this is the first time ever that I see the B-1 flying over Baghdad. Since Tuesday, the long-range huge bomber appeared several times over the city spending as long as 75 minutes in some cases. Unfortunately with only 3x zoom this is the closest I could get.
Monday, February 12, 2007
Terrorists resume their attacks on Baghdad's markets.
The president called for a war to annihilate terrorists and I couldn't agree more. Those terrorists must be annihilated; blowing up civilians in markets is genocide. It's a crime against humanity... The victims had nothing to protect themselves from bullets and bombs, they were not soldiers and they were not politicians...
The latest attack in a series of terror attacks against marketplaces in Baghdad, as I saw it from the roof of my home.
The latest attack in a series of terror attacks against marketplaces in Baghdad, as I saw it from the roof of my home.
A Sunday Night in Baghdad.
Last night was a sleepless one for me. It rolled on until around 4 in the morning and though exhausted I couldn’t sleep. I’ve come to actually like these times because at this hour 99% of Baghdad’s private generators are shut down and the city becomes, for a brief period, enjoyably silent.
It was dark in my room except for a pale ray of moonlight coming through the window. Suddenly the floor began to tremble and a loud roaring sound broke the silence "What the…!" I thought. Then something really creepy happened. That pale ray of moonlight vanished leaving me in total darkness.
"First an earthquake and now the moon has vanished. Is this the end of the universe?”
Not a pleasant thought for a very secular person like myself.
I finally found the courage to get up and look out through my window. Two meters from me was a line of Stryker Armored Combat Vehicles that for some reason had pulled over in our street.
"Phew! Not the end of the universe yet!"
After some time, the convoy moved off, their engines fading slowly as the streets swallowed them up. I stood for a moment thinking about the men in those vehicles who stay up at night patrolling the dangerous streets of Baghdad to protect the few insomniacs like myself, and the millions of other sleeping Baghdadis. I said a prayer (in my own way) for their safety and went back to toss and turn in my bed.
* * * *
Baghdad is still enjoying some days of relative calm interrupted only with minor sporadic incidents. In general there's a feeling that these days are better than almost any other time in months. This is more evident in the eastern side of Baghdad than the western part, because the former part has received more US and Iraqi military reinforcements than the latter.
Checkpoints in Baghdad are becoming more abundant, with more attention paid to the exits and entrances of the city. I’m also hearing that those checkpoints have been reinforced with more soldiers and equipment.
Politically, today president Talbani visited Maliki in his office "to express support for Maliki's security plan". Maliki said after the meeting that operations would quickly gain momentum in the coming days, and that the troops will make efforts help displaced citizens return to their homes.
Signs of such efforts can already be seen on the streets, through political work instead of military. Yesterday the "popular support" committee headed by Ahmed Chalabi succeeded in reopening a Sunni mosque in Sadr city, returning control of the mosque to the Sunni endowment department after it was occupied by Sadr's office personnel last year. The mosque was reopened with a celebration where Sunnis and Shia prayed together behind a Sunni cleric. Before the ceremony Shia volunteers cleaned up the area around the mosque from garbage and fixed the sign that carried the name of the mosque.
Still, I don't expect much from politicians who are behind this. They are only trying to repair their damaged reputations. I do trust the cheering crowd; the average people who are weary of the violence. They clearly expressed their desire to see sectarian portioning reversed because they have seen what forced displacement has wrought upon civilians. Those people were not thinking of the motivations of politicians or clerics. They were speaking from their hearts.
Today I heard unconfirmed news about plans to return the remaining 9 Sunni mosques to the Sunni endowment department. I hope this gesture be met with a similar move on the Sunni end in areas where Shia are minority.
In other encouraging news, I saw on the local Baghdad news that US and Iraqi soldiers have discovered about 60 weapon caches since the beginning of this month, and detained more than 140 suspects during the same period.
Other incidents that indicate a positive change in Maliki's policy are the arrest of deputy minister of health Hakim al-Zamili, and the deployment of IA soldiers to provide security for hospitals in Baghdad instead of the FPS.
The FPS, or the “Facility Protection Service,” is widely accused of being affiliated with death squads. Members of the FPS were recruited directly by ministries through contracts not overseen by the interior or defense ministries. The loyalty of FPS personnel is believed to be toward the political faction controlling any given ministry instead of the country as a whole.
The arrest of al-Zamili indicates that the new plan will not hesitate to target leaders of militant groups no matter what their position in the government was. The Sadr movement responded to the arrest only by saying that it was an insult to all Iraqis. One of their spokesmen said, in a clear sign of helplessness, "If one from our movement is to be arrested, then others from other factions should be arrested as well".
I don't know whether this current attitude of submission is going to last when more senior members are arrested. Still, I like the idea of arresting senior bad guys from both sects. This both satisfies public opinion, and gives credibility to the announced plans of the government to deal equally with all regardless of sect or background.
It was dark in my room except for a pale ray of moonlight coming through the window. Suddenly the floor began to tremble and a loud roaring sound broke the silence "What the…!" I thought. Then something really creepy happened. That pale ray of moonlight vanished leaving me in total darkness.
"First an earthquake and now the moon has vanished. Is this the end of the universe?”
Not a pleasant thought for a very secular person like myself.
I finally found the courage to get up and look out through my window. Two meters from me was a line of Stryker Armored Combat Vehicles that for some reason had pulled over in our street.
"Phew! Not the end of the universe yet!"
After some time, the convoy moved off, their engines fading slowly as the streets swallowed them up. I stood for a moment thinking about the men in those vehicles who stay up at night patrolling the dangerous streets of Baghdad to protect the few insomniacs like myself, and the millions of other sleeping Baghdadis. I said a prayer (in my own way) for their safety and went back to toss and turn in my bed.
* * * *
Baghdad is still enjoying some days of relative calm interrupted only with minor sporadic incidents. In general there's a feeling that these days are better than almost any other time in months. This is more evident in the eastern side of Baghdad than the western part, because the former part has received more US and Iraqi military reinforcements than the latter.
Checkpoints in Baghdad are becoming more abundant, with more attention paid to the exits and entrances of the city. I’m also hearing that those checkpoints have been reinforced with more soldiers and equipment.
Politically, today president Talbani visited Maliki in his office "to express support for Maliki's security plan". Maliki said after the meeting that operations would quickly gain momentum in the coming days, and that the troops will make efforts help displaced citizens return to their homes.
Signs of such efforts can already be seen on the streets, through political work instead of military. Yesterday the "popular support" committee headed by Ahmed Chalabi succeeded in reopening a Sunni mosque in Sadr city, returning control of the mosque to the Sunni endowment department after it was occupied by Sadr's office personnel last year. The mosque was reopened with a celebration where Sunnis and Shia prayed together behind a Sunni cleric. Before the ceremony Shia volunteers cleaned up the area around the mosque from garbage and fixed the sign that carried the name of the mosque.
Still, I don't expect much from politicians who are behind this. They are only trying to repair their damaged reputations. I do trust the cheering crowd; the average people who are weary of the violence. They clearly expressed their desire to see sectarian portioning reversed because they have seen what forced displacement has wrought upon civilians. Those people were not thinking of the motivations of politicians or clerics. They were speaking from their hearts.
Today I heard unconfirmed news about plans to return the remaining 9 Sunni mosques to the Sunni endowment department. I hope this gesture be met with a similar move on the Sunni end in areas where Shia are minority.
In other encouraging news, I saw on the local Baghdad news that US and Iraqi soldiers have discovered about 60 weapon caches since the beginning of this month, and detained more than 140 suspects during the same period.
Other incidents that indicate a positive change in Maliki's policy are the arrest of deputy minister of health Hakim al-Zamili, and the deployment of IA soldiers to provide security for hospitals in Baghdad instead of the FPS.
The FPS, or the “Facility Protection Service,” is widely accused of being affiliated with death squads. Members of the FPS were recruited directly by ministries through contracts not overseen by the interior or defense ministries. The loyalty of FPS personnel is believed to be toward the political faction controlling any given ministry instead of the country as a whole.
The arrest of al-Zamili indicates that the new plan will not hesitate to target leaders of militant groups no matter what their position in the government was. The Sadr movement responded to the arrest only by saying that it was an insult to all Iraqis. One of their spokesmen said, in a clear sign of helplessness, "If one from our movement is to be arrested, then others from other factions should be arrested as well".
I don't know whether this current attitude of submission is going to last when more senior members are arrested. Still, I like the idea of arresting senior bad guys from both sects. This both satisfies public opinion, and gives credibility to the announced plans of the government to deal equally with all regardless of sect or background.
Wednesday, February 07, 2007
Operation Baghdad, Day 2.
Last night continued to be quiet for the most part and nothing indicated that the operation in Azamiyah faced resistance.
I woke up late this morning and again it was very quiet. I asked Mohammed if there was anything going on and the answer was negative.
An hour later two of our friends came by and asked if we'd like to go out for lunch, and off we went.
We drove for about half an hour across eastern Baghdad and there was nothing unusual; just the same checkpoints we've been seeing for the past week or so and traffic was more than normal more or less.
I got a bit curious and turned on the radio in the car to see if I was missing something but there was absolutely no news about any significant incidents or operations.
The interesting thing I heard-not on the radio- was what one of my friends told me about is what he saw earlier this morning; he had some work to do in Kazimiya across the river and since many of the bridges were closed to traffic he couldn't reach his destination first but then he heard that the bridge between Adhamiya and Kazimiyah was open and he headed that way, he said "The streets were open. There are some checkpoints but it didn't look like a big operation like the one we heard of last night was going on over there!"
This doesn't make sense, I thought….
We found the restaurant full of people; mostly students from the nearby college having lunch after classes. We had our lunch and drove back.
When I returned home I went directly to my computer to see if the web had more news than what radio and TV offered but again I couldn't find anything.
However later I got to hear conflicting reports about the status of Baghdad's security plan; as you can see from yesterday's post it seemed that the operation was officially launched but this afternoon I heard that a US general in Iraq said that the time for launching the plan would be an Iraqi decision.
It's not clear yet which account is more accurate but I think the issue is more about formalities than about technical military issues; PM Maliki and his cabinet have been long talking about the plan being entirely Iraqi in both planning and implementation and that the role of the US military would be limited to offering advice and support. So it seems he felt that someone was stealing his thunder so to speak, and he didn't like that. If my guess is true, then it's somewhat childish of him.
So I guess it’s only that Maliki wants to be the one who blows the attack horn and I think this will be very soon, but technically the operation has started, yet in a way that's quiet different from previous operations.
I woke up late this morning and again it was very quiet. I asked Mohammed if there was anything going on and the answer was negative.
An hour later two of our friends came by and asked if we'd like to go out for lunch, and off we went.
We drove for about half an hour across eastern Baghdad and there was nothing unusual; just the same checkpoints we've been seeing for the past week or so and traffic was more than normal more or less.
I got a bit curious and turned on the radio in the car to see if I was missing something but there was absolutely no news about any significant incidents or operations.
The interesting thing I heard-not on the radio- was what one of my friends told me about is what he saw earlier this morning; he had some work to do in Kazimiya across the river and since many of the bridges were closed to traffic he couldn't reach his destination first but then he heard that the bridge between Adhamiya and Kazimiyah was open and he headed that way, he said "The streets were open. There are some checkpoints but it didn't look like a big operation like the one we heard of last night was going on over there!"
This doesn't make sense, I thought….
We found the restaurant full of people; mostly students from the nearby college having lunch after classes. We had our lunch and drove back.
When I returned home I went directly to my computer to see if the web had more news than what radio and TV offered but again I couldn't find anything.
However later I got to hear conflicting reports about the status of Baghdad's security plan; as you can see from yesterday's post it seemed that the operation was officially launched but this afternoon I heard that a US general in Iraq said that the time for launching the plan would be an Iraqi decision.
It's not clear yet which account is more accurate but I think the issue is more about formalities than about technical military issues; PM Maliki and his cabinet have been long talking about the plan being entirely Iraqi in both planning and implementation and that the role of the US military would be limited to offering advice and support. So it seems he felt that someone was stealing his thunder so to speak, and he didn't like that. If my guess is true, then it's somewhat childish of him.
So I guess it’s only that Maliki wants to be the one who blows the attack horn and I think this will be very soon, but technically the operation has started, yet in a way that's quiet different from previous operations.
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Operation Baghdad Has Started!
Minutes after nighttime curfew began in Baghdad at 9 pm we saw breaking news on al-Hurra and al-Jazeera saying that Baghdad's security operation has just started.
The news says the first operation is currently underway in Azamiyah in the northeastern part of the city.
However, it looks quiet here at the moment, except for a sudden increase in activity in the skies with US jet fighters patrolling over the northern parts of Baghdad.
We're now only a few kilometers far from Azamiyah, so if there's going to be some action, we'll certainly hear-or see-it, and we'll keep you updated.
Update:
From Radio Sawa:
Whether this is the start of Operation Baghdad or not, the operation is taking place without making any noise; in fact tonight is even quieter than the average Baghdad night!
The news says the first operation is currently underway in Azamiyah in the northeastern part of the city.
However, it looks quiet here at the moment, except for a sudden increase in activity in the skies with US jet fighters patrolling over the northern parts of Baghdad.
We're now only a few kilometers far from Azamiyah, so if there's going to be some action, we'll certainly hear-or see-it, and we'll keep you updated.
Update:
From Radio Sawa:
A joint US and Iraqi force stormed al-Azamiyah neighborhood in Baghdad in what an American military official described as the start for the awaited security operation in Baghdad.
Major Robbie Park said 2,000 US soldiers are working side by side with soldiers from the 1st and 9th divisions of the Iraqi army…The troops searched dozens of homes in and around Azamiyah and confiscated large amounts of weapons.
But an assistant to PM Maliki denied that this was the start of the new security operation, saying that this is a limited operation (the government ordered) after receiving information that insurgents are hiding in the neighborhood.
Whether this is the start of Operation Baghdad or not, the operation is taking place without making any noise; in fact tonight is even quieter than the average Baghdad night!
Sunday, February 04, 2007
More violence in Baghdad as the city braces for the security plan.
I was with a friend on our way home yesterday when we were shocked by the sound of a powerful explosion. We looked in all directions trying to figure out where it was but there was nothing to indicate where the bomb, or whatever it was, went off.
My friend's phone rang; it was his sister checking on him, she told him the explosion looked close to their place. Seconds later Omar was calling to make sure I was ok and he too thought the explosion was close to our home.
Strange thing is despite the distance between my friend's home, my home and our location at that point everyone thought the explosion was too close and this suggests it was a massive one.
Soon a plume of thick smoke was rising from the ground and it wasn't close to any of the places above. Minutes later I saw the first reports on TV talking about a huge explosion in al-Sadriya market and casualty tolls were increasing every other minute—25, then 40, then 75…an hour later news was talking bout more than a hundred killed in what the media like to call a "predominantly Shia neighborhood".
Al-Sadriya doesn't belong to a certain sect; it's a commercial area where shoppers and shopkeepers are simply Baghdadis but sadly the media is keen on adding sectarian descriptions of the attacked targets in their reports. These descriptions draw the path for blind retaliators who in this case shortly responded by showering what the media calls "predominantly Sunni neighborhoods" with mortars to kill and wound dozens.
I can swear none of the victims in these attacks had any connection to the fighting among the rivals; like Amir Taheri said the other day, this is not a sectarian war but a war of the sectarians; fanatics and extremists start the fight but innocents who never thought of carrying arms to kill people of other faiths are paying the heavier price.
First they attacked universities and schools, and now marketplaces and I don't know what's going to be next on their list. You can't predict what power maniacs and insane terrorists are planning for.
The security plan isn't at work yet and Baghdad is receiving heavy blows. This is not unexpected because the enemies recognize what Baghdad means to the outcome of this war. Life and stability in this city will mean defeat for terrorists of all backgrounds and they feel they must fight hard to stop this from happening.
There was notable deployment of Iraqi army units and armored vehicles on the streets yesterday. I saw one of those armored units establish battle positions at one of the important intersections in Baghdad; soldiers were erecting tents and the vehicles were set in defensive formations. Maybe that intersection will become the border of one of the nine sectors.
Al-Mada had a report yesterday that spoke of similar activities across Baghdad:
The same report also talks about a meeting that was held on Friday, apparently to make the final touches on the plan:
The report also quoted one of Maliki's advisors say "It won't take long until the plan is launched because, as far as I know, most of the requirements and preparations have been fulfilled"
On the other hand al-Sabah paper which reflects the opinion of the government wrote what indicates that operations are imminent:
The streets remain full of all sorts of expected and unexpected violence and I hope the government is serious this time about enforcing the law; appeasement, half solutions and bias would be fatal mistakes that we can't afford to make.
My friend's phone rang; it was his sister checking on him, she told him the explosion looked close to their place. Seconds later Omar was calling to make sure I was ok and he too thought the explosion was close to our home.
Strange thing is despite the distance between my friend's home, my home and our location at that point everyone thought the explosion was too close and this suggests it was a massive one.
Soon a plume of thick smoke was rising from the ground and it wasn't close to any of the places above. Minutes later I saw the first reports on TV talking about a huge explosion in al-Sadriya market and casualty tolls were increasing every other minute—25, then 40, then 75…an hour later news was talking bout more than a hundred killed in what the media like to call a "predominantly Shia neighborhood".
Al-Sadriya doesn't belong to a certain sect; it's a commercial area where shoppers and shopkeepers are simply Baghdadis but sadly the media is keen on adding sectarian descriptions of the attacked targets in their reports. These descriptions draw the path for blind retaliators who in this case shortly responded by showering what the media calls "predominantly Sunni neighborhoods" with mortars to kill and wound dozens.
I can swear none of the victims in these attacks had any connection to the fighting among the rivals; like Amir Taheri said the other day, this is not a sectarian war but a war of the sectarians; fanatics and extremists start the fight but innocents who never thought of carrying arms to kill people of other faiths are paying the heavier price.
First they attacked universities and schools, and now marketplaces and I don't know what's going to be next on their list. You can't predict what power maniacs and insane terrorists are planning for.
The security plan isn't at work yet and Baghdad is receiving heavy blows. This is not unexpected because the enemies recognize what Baghdad means to the outcome of this war. Life and stability in this city will mean defeat for terrorists of all backgrounds and they feel they must fight hard to stop this from happening.
There was notable deployment of Iraqi army units and armored vehicles on the streets yesterday. I saw one of those armored units establish battle positions at one of the important intersections in Baghdad; soldiers were erecting tents and the vehicles were set in defensive formations. Maybe that intersection will become the border of one of the nine sectors.
Al-Mada had a report yesterday that spoke of similar activities across Baghdad:
Although the government didn't announce a date for launching the security plan, preparations can be easily seen through the deployment of security forces and the reestablishment of many checkpoints. Eyewitnesses told al-Mada that they saw army units deploying to the suburbs of Baghdad. Army vehicles drove through main streets asking people to remove the barricades they built earlier as a defensive measure against attacks from death squads.
The same report also talks about a meeting that was held on Friday, apparently to make the final touches on the plan:
Al-Maliki headed a meeting Friday night to discuss the final preparations for the plan as well as the tasks of the five involved committees.
The two deputies of the PM, the national security adviser, the defense minister, the American ambassador, general Casey, spokesman of the government and Dr. Ahmed al-Chalabi attended the meeting.
The government had previously formed several committees to supervise the execution of the different elements of the plan…after appointing general Aboud Qanbar as the military commander of the Baghdad force the government named deputy PM Salam al-Zobaay as head of the services committee, deputy PM Barham Salih as head of the economy committee and Dr. Ahmed al-Chalabi as head of the popular support committee.
The report also quoted one of Maliki's advisors say "It won't take long until the plan is launched because, as far as I know, most of the requirements and preparations have been fulfilled"
On the other hand al-Sabah paper which reflects the opinion of the government wrote what indicates that operations are imminent:
While the Baghdad security plan is still surrounded by secrecy, unofficial information says the plan is likely to be launched on Monday or Tuesday.
In other news the deployment of an Iraqi brigade from Kurdistan to Baghdad is now complete and two other brigades are reportedly on their way in the coming days.
The streets remain full of all sorts of expected and unexpected violence and I hope the government is serious this time about enforcing the law; appeasement, half solutions and bias would be fatal mistakes that we can't afford to make.
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