The commander of Baghdad operations General Aboud Kanbar announced that 3,331 Sons of Iraq (tribal fighters, members of Awakening Councils) will be hired as civil servants at 19 ministries and departments.
The announcement was made at ceremony celebrating the efforts of the Awakening Councils in fighting al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups.
The Iraqi government had pledged to provide jobs for the nearly 100k members of the Awakening Councils. Some 20k are believed to have been absorbed into the Iraqi security forces. The rest await civilian jobs. The issue is considered an important cornerstone for national reconciliation efforts.
New points of view about the future of Iraq and the Middle East.
Tuesday, August 04, 2009
Monday, August 03, 2009
Maliki in Kurdistan
A summary of some news reports from the Iraqi media on PM Nouri al-Maliki’s visit to Kurdistan and his meeting with Masoud Barazani.
Azzaman reports that Maliki proposed a roadmap to Kurdish leaders that involves postponing the referendum on Kirkuk’s future.
Al-Sabah quoted Maliki as saying that the things we and the region agree on are more than the things we disagree on. The report adds that sources expected Maliki’s visit could last for two days during which he would meet other regional officials including the leaders of the two slates that came second and third in the region’s elections.
Maliki also played down the differences between Baghdad and Kurdistan by saying that differences between Baghdad and Kurdistan are not an anomaly.
Politicians from different blocs had different things to say about the visit.
The chief of the Accord Front Dhafir al-Aani told Radio Sawa that Maliki’s visit to Kurdistan was unlikely to resolve the disputes between Baghdad and the Kurdish region. Al-Aani called the problems between the two sides “complicated” and called on Maliki to engage other political powers in the search for solutions.
Sami al-Askari, a Shiite MP known to be close to Maliki was a little bit more optimistic. Askari told al-Mada that Maliki’s visit was “an important step to bridge the gap between Baghdad and Erbil” However, he acknowledged that more time would be needed to reach final solutions. He said the details of disputed issues would be talked later by a joint commission between Baghdad and Erbil.
Azzaman reports that Maliki proposed a roadmap to Kurdish leaders that involves postponing the referendum on Kirkuk’s future.
One suggestion is to have the Kurdish side request postponing the Kirkuk referendum so that it does not appear as it [the delay] were imposed on the Kurdish regional government. The sources added that a commission will be formed (of Maliki, Barazani, Barham Salih and an unnamed Iraqi minister) to resolve disputes between the center and the region without interference from political coalitions.
Al-Sabah quoted Maliki as saying that the things we and the region agree on are more than the things we disagree on. The report adds that sources expected Maliki’s visit could last for two days during which he would meet other regional officials including the leaders of the two slates that came second and third in the region’s elections.
Maliki also played down the differences between Baghdad and Kurdistan by saying that differences between Baghdad and Kurdistan are not an anomaly.
There are differences not only with Kurdistan but also within the federal government and with other provinces. “I consider this to be normal since we are building a state on the ruins of dictatorship and a rigid centralized system. The emergence of differences does not justify pessimism, nor should we expect that to push democracy to collapse and waste all the accomplishments we paid for in sweat and blood. I personally think the problems are in smaller details and we have agreed to resolve them.
Politicians from different blocs had different things to say about the visit.
The chief of the Accord Front Dhafir al-Aani told Radio Sawa that Maliki’s visit to Kurdistan was unlikely to resolve the disputes between Baghdad and the Kurdish region. Al-Aani called the problems between the two sides “complicated” and called on Maliki to engage other political powers in the search for solutions.
Sami al-Askari, a Shiite MP known to be close to Maliki was a little bit more optimistic. Askari told al-Mada that Maliki’s visit was “an important step to bridge the gap between Baghdad and Erbil” However, he acknowledged that more time would be needed to reach final solutions. He said the details of disputed issues would be talked later by a joint commission between Baghdad and Erbil.
Saturday, August 01, 2009
A bank robbery turns political
The ministry of interior announced that the gunmen who robbed a Baghdad bank last Tuesday were arrested yesterday. The gunmen, who are reportedly included two security forces officers, had stormed a bank in the Karrada district of Baghdad and stole $7 millions after killing 8 guards.
The robbery and the quick apprehension of the robbers turned into heated exchanges of defamation among politicians and affiliated media outlets.
State-owned al-Sabah reported that the MOI “declined to reveal the identity of those involved in the robber of the Ziwiyah bank in Baghdad. The MOI only reaffirmed that the stolen money was retrieved and delivered to the ministry of finance”. The report added that the MOI believes that “the gang executed the operation without the knowledge of their employer”.
By “employer” the MOI is implicitly referring to someone closely affiliated with the ISCI and VP Aadil Abdul-Mahdi. Other media outlets like al-Sharqiya was less reserved in alluding to links between the robbers and the ISCI. Others like Azzaman say the whole story of the arrest was faked by the MOI to cover up for their failure to prevent recent violent attacks in Baghdad.
On the other side, Buratha News, a website closely affiliated with the ISCI posted a very awkward report in defense of Abdul-Mahdi. It goes like this:
“Informed sources mentioned that the Ziwiyah robbery, in which 9 guards were killed, was executed by a group of Iraqi Army officers; one officer is from the 9th brigade, and the other is from the presidential battalion. The robbers were identified by the personal guards of Dr. Aadil Abdul-Mahdi. As a result, Dr. Abdul-Mahdi went to meet al-Maliki without an appointment. The sources mentioned that Maliki was asleep at the time but he was awakened and briefed on the subject by VP Abdul-Mahdi who asked Maliki to let the presidential battalion raid the location. Maliki agreed and the raiding force captured one of the officers and found the stolen money. The criminal confessed that he had hidden the money at the Adala (Justice) newspaper (an ISCI publications) where he works as a security guard because he thought security forces wouldn’t search there. The sources also denied the culprits had any political affiliation”.
The robbery and the quick apprehension of the robbers turned into heated exchanges of defamation among politicians and affiliated media outlets.
State-owned al-Sabah reported that the MOI “declined to reveal the identity of those involved in the robber of the Ziwiyah bank in Baghdad. The MOI only reaffirmed that the stolen money was retrieved and delivered to the ministry of finance”. The report added that the MOI believes that “the gang executed the operation without the knowledge of their employer”.
By “employer” the MOI is implicitly referring to someone closely affiliated with the ISCI and VP Aadil Abdul-Mahdi. Other media outlets like al-Sharqiya was less reserved in alluding to links between the robbers and the ISCI. Others like Azzaman say the whole story of the arrest was faked by the MOI to cover up for their failure to prevent recent violent attacks in Baghdad.
On the other side, Buratha News, a website closely affiliated with the ISCI posted a very awkward report in defense of Abdul-Mahdi. It goes like this:
“Informed sources mentioned that the Ziwiyah robbery, in which 9 guards were killed, was executed by a group of Iraqi Army officers; one officer is from the 9th brigade, and the other is from the presidential battalion. The robbers were identified by the personal guards of Dr. Aadil Abdul-Mahdi. As a result, Dr. Abdul-Mahdi went to meet al-Maliki without an appointment. The sources mentioned that Maliki was asleep at the time but he was awakened and briefed on the subject by VP Abdul-Mahdi who asked Maliki to let the presidential battalion raid the location. Maliki agreed and the raiding force captured one of the officers and found the stolen money. The criminal confessed that he had hidden the money at the Adala (Justice) newspaper (an ISCI publications) where he works as a security guard because he thought security forces wouldn’t search there. The sources also denied the culprits had any political affiliation”.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
The Iraqia TV drops the call for prayer
The Iraqia (state TV) replaced the traditional televised call for prayers with a subtitle today. According to Buratha news, a website affiliated with the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq, al-Iraqia managers received an executive order from PM Maliki’s office to use a subtitle instead of the few-minute-long call for the noon prayers. It is expected that the order will extend to replace all other calls for prayers with subtitles. Buratha speculates that the order, which came immediately following Mailiki’s return from the U.S. was a move aimed to facilitate reconciliation efforts in the country.
The issue of televised calls for prayers has been a source of controversy and anxiety in Iraq since 2003. Most Sunnis and secular Iraqis are opposed to broadcasting the call for prayers, particularly the Shiite version of it. Many people saw the practice as a sign of Shiite attempts to impose Shiite identity and practices on everyone else in the country.
The move is likely to be met with positives reactions from Sunni and secular constituencies and political parties. I think they will see in this move a clear sign that Maliki is ready to further dilute his Shiite Islamic identity in favor of a new working political coalition. There's a price for that; Maliki is likely to come under harsh criticism from other Shiite parties who are likely to use this case against him in their electoral campaigns.
The issue of televised calls for prayers has been a source of controversy and anxiety in Iraq since 2003. Most Sunnis and secular Iraqis are opposed to broadcasting the call for prayers, particularly the Shiite version of it. Many people saw the practice as a sign of Shiite attempts to impose Shiite identity and practices on everyone else in the country.
The move is likely to be met with positives reactions from Sunni and secular constituencies and political parties. I think they will see in this move a clear sign that Maliki is ready to further dilute his Shiite Islamic identity in favor of a new working political coalition. There's a price for that; Maliki is likely to come under harsh criticism from other Shiite parties who are likely to use this case against him in their electoral campaigns.
Defending Iraq's Skies
I have been closely following the process of building and equipping the Iraqi security forces (ISF). One of the areas I am most interested in is the future of the Iraqi air force and air defense capabilities. The challenges facing Iraq in this particular area are huge for several reasons. The most important reason is the large cost in both time and money that are required to equip, train and field a reliable modern air force.
Today U.S. defense secretary Robert Gates is in Baghdad to discuss assistance to the ISF beyond 2011. The possibility of equipping the Iraqi air force with F-16 fighter jets is expected to be a priority in the discussions.
For the last few months, I have been working to analyze Iraq’s defense needs, particularly what the country would need to secure its airspace and support its ground forces. I have come to the conclusion that expensive modern fighter jets may not be the best procurement option for Iraq at this stage.
I invite those interested in this aspect of military policy to read my analysis and share feedback. You can find the paper in pdf format here.
Today U.S. defense secretary Robert Gates is in Baghdad to discuss assistance to the ISF beyond 2011. The possibility of equipping the Iraqi air force with F-16 fighter jets is expected to be a priority in the discussions.
For the last few months, I have been working to analyze Iraq’s defense needs, particularly what the country would need to secure its airspace and support its ground forces. I have come to the conclusion that expensive modern fighter jets may not be the best procurement option for Iraq at this stage.
I invite those interested in this aspect of military policy to read my analysis and share feedback. You can find the paper in pdf format here.
Iraqi Army Takes Over Camp Ashraf
AFP:
The status of Mujahedeen Khalq, an Iranian opposition group, has been a point of controversy in Iraq since 2003. Most Sunni politicians say the group members are refugees. Thus they are entitled to protection under the Geneva conventions. Of course Sunni politicians are more interested in keeping the group on Iraqi soil as a bargaining chip to use in dealing with Iran. On the other hand, Shiite politicians say Mujahedeen Khalq is a terrorist group that seeks to undermine the stability of a neighboring country. Therefore Iraq, under the constitution, should not house the group.
The U.S. could not find a final solution for the issue either. U.S. forces disarmed the camp years ago. The U.S. also listed Mujahedeen Khalq as a terrorist group. However, the U.S. did not take steps to prosecute or deport the 3,000 strong group, perhaps because the U.S. too sees them as a bargaining chip to use in dealing with Iran.
Now Maliki decided to take things into his hands. It will be interesting to see how he deals with the group members. In my opinion he is smarter than to give away anything for free.
"After the failure of negotiations with the Mujahedeen to enter peacefully, the Iraqi army entered Camp Ashraf with force and it now controls all of the interior and all entrances to the camp," an Iraqi military source said.
The status of Mujahedeen Khalq, an Iranian opposition group, has been a point of controversy in Iraq since 2003. Most Sunni politicians say the group members are refugees. Thus they are entitled to protection under the Geneva conventions. Of course Sunni politicians are more interested in keeping the group on Iraqi soil as a bargaining chip to use in dealing with Iran. On the other hand, Shiite politicians say Mujahedeen Khalq is a terrorist group that seeks to undermine the stability of a neighboring country. Therefore Iraq, under the constitution, should not house the group.
The U.S. could not find a final solution for the issue either. U.S. forces disarmed the camp years ago. The U.S. also listed Mujahedeen Khalq as a terrorist group. However, the U.S. did not take steps to prosecute or deport the 3,000 strong group, perhaps because the U.S. too sees them as a bargaining chip to use in dealing with Iran.
Now Maliki decided to take things into his hands. It will be interesting to see how he deals with the group members. In my opinion he is smarter than to give away anything for free.
Monday, July 27, 2009
Kurdish scholars: The new parliament will be ‘more effective’
Two Kurdish researchers speak about their expectations about how election results are going to change the political situation in Kurdistan. Rebein Rasoul, who heads the Kurdish American Association in Erbil thinks the results “show that the Change slate made a great success, while the Reform and Services (Islamist-Leftist) had a setback as the latter was looking forward to more than 20 seats”. Rasoul also speculates that “the next four years will be tough for the three blocs. Any shortcomings in their performance could lead to further (electoral) setbacks”. Rasoul warned that “most of the pressure will be on the current PUK (Talabani’s Party), which will have to restructure the party to avoid its collapse”.
Another scholar, Serdar Qadir of the University of Sulaymaniyah, thinks “the new parliament will be more capable of fulfilling its duties as a legislative branch and a watchdog body now that there are three different blocs”.
The important point in my opinion is one which both Rasoul and Qadir seem to agree upon. Both think that future legislations will require real debates and discussions within the parliament, unlike in the past “where legislations were passed simply by the approval of the two major parties”.
Another scholar, Serdar Qadir of the University of Sulaymaniyah, thinks “the new parliament will be more capable of fulfilling its duties as a legislative branch and a watchdog body now that there are three different blocs”.
The important point in my opinion is one which both Rasoul and Qadir seem to agree upon. Both think that future legislations will require real debates and discussions within the parliament, unlike in the past “where legislations were passed simply by the approval of the two major parties”.
NATO, Iraq sign new agrement to train ISF
On 26 July 2009, the Minister of Defence of the Republic of Iraq, Mr. Abdul Qader Mohammad Jassim Al-Mafrji, on behalf of the Government of the Republic of Iraq, and the NATO Deputy Secretary General, Ambassador Claudio Bisogniero, on behalf of NATO, signed an agreement between the Government of the Republic of Iraq and NATO regarding the training of Iraqi Security Forces.
This agreement represents a milestone in the cooperation between the Republic of Iraq and NATO and demonstrates the Alliance’s strong commitment to work in partnership with the sovereign government of Iraq as it focuses on rebuilding and strengthening of governance structures.
The agreement will provide the legal basis for NATO to continue with its mission to assist the Government of the Republic of Iraq in developing further the capabilities of the Iraqi Security Forces.
Kurdistan Elections Update
The Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) has yet to announce the results of the parliamentary and presidential elections of Kurdistan region. However, the competing political blocs have been talking about the estimated number of seats they secured. The interesting thing is that there seems to be a general agreement on these estimates among the rival slates.
From the information I compiled, the 111 parliamentary seats are expected to be distributed as follows:
- The Kurdistan bloc (PUK and KDP) is expected to get approximately 55 seats
- The Change slate is expected to get approximately 30 seats
- The coalition of Islamic-Leftist parties is expected to get 15 seats
- The minorities (Christian, Turkmen, others) who are traditionally affiliated with the Kurdistan bloc are expected to get the remaining 11 seats
The fact that the shares of the Islamists, leftists and minorities hardly changed at all means that the opposition, represented by the Change slate, managed to extract most of those 30 seats from the PUK and KDP. This implies that the elections were rather fair, and that the claims of rampant fraud and violations were perhaps a little exaggerated.
The results also reflect the social differences between the different parts of Kurdistan. The Change slate fared very well in the more liberal and open society of Sulaymaniyah. By contrast, the more socially and religiously conservative societies in Dohuk and Erbil favored the KDP and the Islamist opposition.
The impact of these results on Kurdish politics is likely to be great. A leading member of the Islamist-Leftist coalition alluded to a possible alliance with the Change slate to challenge the control of the PUK and KDP. Such an alliance, if becomes reality, would mean that the ruling coalition will have to work in the presence of an opposition that controls nearly 40% of the seats in the Kurdish parliament.
It is not clear yet how this change in Kurdistan’s political map is going to impact the political scene on the national level. This is largely because the slate’s campaign was focused more on corruption and services than on Arab-Kurdish relations. It is however natural that a bloc that controls almost a third of Kurdistan’s parliament will have a role to play in Kurdistan-Baghdad relations. This role could become quite significant if the Change slate performs similarly in the national general elections next January. The way this bloc aligns in the future vis-à-vis other political powers will be interesting to watch.
From the information I compiled, the 111 parliamentary seats are expected to be distributed as follows:
- The Kurdistan bloc (PUK and KDP) is expected to get approximately 55 seats
- The Change slate is expected to get approximately 30 seats
- The coalition of Islamic-Leftist parties is expected to get 15 seats
- The minorities (Christian, Turkmen, others) who are traditionally affiliated with the Kurdistan bloc are expected to get the remaining 11 seats
The fact that the shares of the Islamists, leftists and minorities hardly changed at all means that the opposition, represented by the Change slate, managed to extract most of those 30 seats from the PUK and KDP. This implies that the elections were rather fair, and that the claims of rampant fraud and violations were perhaps a little exaggerated.
The results also reflect the social differences between the different parts of Kurdistan. The Change slate fared very well in the more liberal and open society of Sulaymaniyah. By contrast, the more socially and religiously conservative societies in Dohuk and Erbil favored the KDP and the Islamist opposition.
The impact of these results on Kurdish politics is likely to be great. A leading member of the Islamist-Leftist coalition alluded to a possible alliance with the Change slate to challenge the control of the PUK and KDP. Such an alliance, if becomes reality, would mean that the ruling coalition will have to work in the presence of an opposition that controls nearly 40% of the seats in the Kurdish parliament.
It is not clear yet how this change in Kurdistan’s political map is going to impact the political scene on the national level. This is largely because the slate’s campaign was focused more on corruption and services than on Arab-Kurdish relations. It is however natural that a bloc that controls almost a third of Kurdistan’s parliament will have a role to play in Kurdistan-Baghdad relations. This role could become quite significant if the Change slate performs similarly in the national general elections next January. The way this bloc aligns in the future vis-à-vis other political powers will be interesting to watch.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Police to Replace Iraqi Army in Urban Areas
Iraqi commanders are speaking of what appears to be a long-term plan to hand over security in urban areas to the police. Lieutenant General Ali Ghaydan, the commander of ground forces, told the press that the defense ministry has plans to withdraw army units from urban areas. He added that efforts continue to build a capable police force that can handle internal security needs in all provinces.
Ideally, this should be the natural course of events; police handle internal security, while the army deals with external threats. Although the Iraqi police and national police have been making significant progress, such an ambitious transition is expected to take some time; perhaps 2-3 years.
In related news the director of the national command center in the ministry of interior announced that the MOI intends to purchase 15 aircraft from the U.S. to assist in monitoring the borders “and carry out other special missions”. General Khalaf explained that “Interior minister Jawad Bolani will discuss the contract to purchase these aircraft during his current visit to the U.S. as part of the delegation accompanying PM Maliki”
Khalaf added that Iraq will use the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) system to acquire these aircraft. The type of the aircraft remains unknown.
Meanwhile, U.S. troops in southern Iraq are focusing their efforts on the borders after their withdrawal from urban areas. The commander of the 10th division (IA) said that U.S. troops that left the towns of Maysan province have redeployed to border areas to deter militants and weapons trafficking from Iran. The officer added that the Iraqi air force has begun to provide some support to the IA troops in this sector.
Ideally, this should be the natural course of events; police handle internal security, while the army deals with external threats. Although the Iraqi police and national police have been making significant progress, such an ambitious transition is expected to take some time; perhaps 2-3 years.
In related news the director of the national command center in the ministry of interior announced that the MOI intends to purchase 15 aircraft from the U.S. to assist in monitoring the borders “and carry out other special missions”. General Khalaf explained that “Interior minister Jawad Bolani will discuss the contract to purchase these aircraft during his current visit to the U.S. as part of the delegation accompanying PM Maliki”
Khalaf added that Iraq will use the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) system to acquire these aircraft. The type of the aircraft remains unknown.
Meanwhile, U.S. troops in southern Iraq are focusing their efforts on the borders after their withdrawal from urban areas. The commander of the 10th division (IA) said that U.S. troops that left the towns of Maysan province have redeployed to border areas to deter militants and weapons trafficking from Iran. The officer added that the Iraqi air force has begun to provide some support to the IA troops in this sector.
Kurdistan Elections Begin
The presidential and parliamentary elections in Kurdistan region began earlier today. First to cast their ballots in the 'special voting' were security forces personnel, detainees and people in hospitals. Approximately 120 thousand voters are expected to take part in this early voting. The main bulk of voters are still scheduled to cast their ballots on Saturday the 25th.
For a useful interactive map of the elections click here.
Here also you can find short biographies of the five candidates running for president in Kurdistan.
For a useful interactive map of the elections click here.
Here also you can find short biographies of the five candidates running for president in Kurdistan.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Turning insurgents to artists
This is truly amazing:
A group of 12 detainees graduated from the Remembrance II Theater Internment Facility Detainee Art Program here July 15.
This art program is one of many set in place to help the detainees learn a trade or skill while working with people who may be of a different cultural background.
As their final product, the members of the class painted a mural displaying the beauty that they saw in Iraq. The mural was split into three parts; the northern region, Baghdad and the south. Each sector displayed three historical or geographical landmarks.
“The mural shows how there are many different parts of Iraq but they are all one country,” said 1st Lt. Valerie Breunig, the information operations officer in charge, 1-158th Transportation Company, 519th Battalion.
At the graduation ceremony, one detainee walked up to the podium to make a speech. He spoke about the meaning of the group-painted mural and also about how the class had opened his eyes to a new way of thinking.
“We want to thank the teachers because they teach us that there is one country and all Iraqis (are) the same,” the speaker said.
"We now know that there is no difference between Sunni and Shia,” the detainee said. “I am a Sunni and here is my friend, a Shia. We like to say we love this country and there is no difference between Sunni, Shia and Kurds. We drink the same water. Thanks to all who listen, and thanks to American Forces.”
During the 30-day course, detainees are taught techniques with straw-blowing watercolor design, sponge painting, ice painting and many other unique design methods.
U.N. to Kurdish leaders: Kirkuk referendum is recipe for war
It is becoming more evident that Arab-Kurdish disputes will be the greatest challenge for Iraq.
I agree that the referendum, in the way Kurds want it, would be a bad idea. I also agree with the assumption that Baghdad and Erbil are not going to reach compromise any time soon. However, I think the lack of compromise in the next six months will not lead to armed conflict between the central government and the Kurdish regional government.
Neither side is certain to win such a war. The central government is aware of the history of the conflict. Baghdad’s attempts to pacify the Kurdish regions for eight decades did not achieve their objective. Moreover, a renewed campaign against a particular ethnic group would undermine the legitimacy of the new political system in Iraq. If Baghdad decides to go to war against the Kurds it will have to forget about U.S. or international support. In fact it would make the system look not so much different from its predecessors.
The Kurds on the other hand, despite a belligerent tone, are not likely to pick up arms and fight the central government. In warfare the unpredictable always happens. I think the Kurdish leadership is aware of the risks war entails. It makes perfect sense for them to accept a power-sharing solution in Kirkuk without bloodshed. Particularly if the alternative involves the risk of not only losing all of Kirkuk for another generation(s), but also the risk of losing parts of their established autonomous region.
The United Nations is urging Iraqi Kurds not to push for a referendum on whether the Kirkuk oil area should be part of their northern enclave, saying such a vote would ignite conflict, a Western diplomat said on Tuesday.
"The U.N. says it will not support a hostile referendum ... (asking) do you want to join the KRG or not?" the diplomat, who is involved in the negotiation, said on condition of anonymity.
"We (all) believe that would lead to war and the U.N. has ... told the Kurds that," he said.
I agree that the referendum, in the way Kurds want it, would be a bad idea. I also agree with the assumption that Baghdad and Erbil are not going to reach compromise any time soon. However, I think the lack of compromise in the next six months will not lead to armed conflict between the central government and the Kurdish regional government.
Neither side is certain to win such a war. The central government is aware of the history of the conflict. Baghdad’s attempts to pacify the Kurdish regions for eight decades did not achieve their objective. Moreover, a renewed campaign against a particular ethnic group would undermine the legitimacy of the new political system in Iraq. If Baghdad decides to go to war against the Kurds it will have to forget about U.S. or international support. In fact it would make the system look not so much different from its predecessors.
The Kurds on the other hand, despite a belligerent tone, are not likely to pick up arms and fight the central government. In warfare the unpredictable always happens. I think the Kurdish leadership is aware of the risks war entails. It makes perfect sense for them to accept a power-sharing solution in Kirkuk without bloodshed. Particularly if the alternative involves the risk of not only losing all of Kirkuk for another generation(s), but also the risk of losing parts of their established autonomous region.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Kurdistan Elections Update
Preparations continue for Kurdistan’s parliamentary and presidential elections, which are scheduled for the 25th of July. The preparations include having people on the ground to monitor the electoral process. Al-Mada reports that, in addition to local monitors, the Arab League is sending a team of 12 to help monitor the elections. The contribution was solicited by the Iraqi government, the paper adds.
Meanwhile, the competing political parties intensified their campaign as elections day nears. Two main themes characterize these campaigns. On the one hand, the two ruling parties have focused on the disputes between the Kurdish region and the central government concerning the future of Kirkuk and other disputed territories. In effect, they are somewhat using fear politics in their campaigns by emphasizing the perceived Arab threat. Today for example, Khesro Koran, the KDP representative in Mosul accused Iraqi Army (IA) officers of fomenting tensions between Baghdad and Irbil. Koran renewed Kurdish criticism for IA deployments to some regions around Mosul.
On the other hand, opposition parties are focusing on the issue of corruption in the Kurdish region. Some opposition groups reported violations and offenses against their followers by the two ruling parties. Others claim to have uncovered rampant government corruption. One presidential candidate, Hallo Ibrahim Ahmed, said he has documents that prove the Kurdish government was involved in massive corruption in oil deals with foreign companies. There’s even a report today that Kurdish authorities, dominated by the PUK and KDP are firing political rivals who are running for office from their jobs; an accusation the two major parties deny.
Meanwhile, the competing political parties intensified their campaign as elections day nears. Two main themes characterize these campaigns. On the one hand, the two ruling parties have focused on the disputes between the Kurdish region and the central government concerning the future of Kirkuk and other disputed territories. In effect, they are somewhat using fear politics in their campaigns by emphasizing the perceived Arab threat. Today for example, Khesro Koran, the KDP representative in Mosul accused Iraqi Army (IA) officers of fomenting tensions between Baghdad and Irbil. Koran renewed Kurdish criticism for IA deployments to some regions around Mosul.
On the other hand, opposition parties are focusing on the issue of corruption in the Kurdish region. Some opposition groups reported violations and offenses against their followers by the two ruling parties. Others claim to have uncovered rampant government corruption. One presidential candidate, Hallo Ibrahim Ahmed, said he has documents that prove the Kurdish government was involved in massive corruption in oil deals with foreign companies. There’s even a report today that Kurdish authorities, dominated by the PUK and KDP are firing political rivals who are running for office from their jobs; an accusation the two major parties deny.
Sadr in Damascus for talks with Assad
Moqtada al-Sadr arrived in Damascus yesterday for talks with Syrian president Bashar Assad. Sadr reportedly “Expressed his appreciation for Syria’s support for the interests of the Iraqi people and Syria’s keen interest in preserving Iraq’s unity”.
What, exactly, is this “support” Moqtada is talking about!?
Found it! A day before Moqtada met with Assad, Damascus hosted a meeting between Harith Dhari and Hamas’ politburo chief Khaled Meshaal. The Association’s website reports “Sheik Dhari reassured Hamas’ politburo chief that resistance in Iraq continues to deal hard blows to the occupiers…Mr. Meshaal asked sheik Dhari to convey his regards to the heroic mujahideen in Iraq…the meeting is part of efforts to exchange points of view between the Association of Muslim Scholars and the Islamic Resistance (Hamas) to find the means to further the spirit of resistance in Palestine and Iraq”
For those who don’t know him, Dhari is the leader of the infamous Association of Muslim Scholars; an organization that has long sympathized with al-Qaeda and is believed to be responsible for much of the violence that killed thousands of innocent Iraqi civilians and coalition soldiers.
Moqtada appears to be struggling to reorganize his movement with Iranian advice. The Syria visit came only days after a video was released in which Moqtada addressed his followers. The interesting thing about this video is that this was the first time Moqtada is seen reading notes from a piece of paper instead of just rambling. At one point in his speech he said that “there will be a time for resistance”. In my opinion, this “time” is set by his Iranian advisers who wrote his notes, and the purpose of the visit is to coordinate that with Syria.
What, exactly, is this “support” Moqtada is talking about!?
Found it! A day before Moqtada met with Assad, Damascus hosted a meeting between Harith Dhari and Hamas’ politburo chief Khaled Meshaal. The Association’s website reports “Sheik Dhari reassured Hamas’ politburo chief that resistance in Iraq continues to deal hard blows to the occupiers…Mr. Meshaal asked sheik Dhari to convey his regards to the heroic mujahideen in Iraq…the meeting is part of efforts to exchange points of view between the Association of Muslim Scholars and the Islamic Resistance (Hamas) to find the means to further the spirit of resistance in Palestine and Iraq”
For those who don’t know him, Dhari is the leader of the infamous Association of Muslim Scholars; an organization that has long sympathized with al-Qaeda and is believed to be responsible for much of the violence that killed thousands of innocent Iraqi civilians and coalition soldiers.
Moqtada appears to be struggling to reorganize his movement with Iranian advice. The Syria visit came only days after a video was released in which Moqtada addressed his followers. The interesting thing about this video is that this was the first time Moqtada is seen reading notes from a piece of paper instead of just rambling. At one point in his speech he said that “there will be a time for resistance”. In my opinion, this “time” is set by his Iranian advisers who wrote his notes, and the purpose of the visit is to coordinate that with Syria.
MPs warn of Iranian naval movements in the Gulf
Knowledgeable parliamentary sources warned of movements by regional powers to “fill the security vacuum in Iraqi territorial water” if the parliament failed to pass a security deal with the UK. Al-Sabah reports that the unnamed MPs warned that Iranian warships were recently spotted lurking near Iraqi territorial water. Meanwhile the defense and security committee in the parliament pointed out that British naval presence is urgently needed to protect Iraqi ports and oil export platforms on the Gulf. An earlier session to vote on the security deal was disrupted when Sadrist MPs walked out of the session, which cause the parliament to delay the vote due to lack of quorum.
Mosul to recruit 'Support Councils' to help provide security
The provincial government in Mosul says to be considering a program to form ‘Support Councils’. Deldar Zebari, deputy chairman of the provincial council said the program “would help bring security to certain parts of Mosul. Many concerned parties in the province welcome the idea of Support Councils”.
Support Councils is a name used to refer to tribal militias that assist government security forces in volatile regions.
The interesting thing is that the announcement came from a Kurdish member of Mosul’s provincial council. Kurds have long resisted the idea of forming such tribal forces in regions of mixed ethnicities, particularly Kirkuk and Mosul. Their concern was that these tribes would answer to the central government thereby disturbing the delicate balance of power.
Support Councils is a name used to refer to tribal militias that assist government security forces in volatile regions.
The interesting thing is that the announcement came from a Kurdish member of Mosul’s provincial council. Kurds have long resisted the idea of forming such tribal forces in regions of mixed ethnicities, particularly Kirkuk and Mosul. Their concern was that these tribes would answer to the central government thereby disturbing the delicate balance of power.
Monday, July 20, 2009
Maliki sets high-handed demands for joining the UIA
According to unnamed Shiite politicians, Maliki has set very high-handed demands for rebuilding the main Shiite coalition known as the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA). Al-Sabah al-Jedid reports that the demands include:
- Half the electoral slots go to Maliki's Da'awa Party
- Maliki retains the Premiership
- Abolishing sectarian quotas in the allocation of public offices
- Reforming the sectarian identity of the UIA
These demands seem to reflect the facts on the ground in light of the results of January's provincial elections. Mailik's Da'awa Party fared much better than any other individual political party. That said, it is logical for Maliki to use this advantageous position to improve his standings as the country prepares for general elections. The other Shiite parties will be facing two choices. The first would be to accept the new status quo and bandwagon with Maliki. The second would be to challenge the status quo and align with other parties to balance Maliki.
My guess is that they will opt for the latter.
In my opinion the upcoming general elections will be a showdown between two trends. On the one hand there are what I call the 'Federalists'; those who want more power in the hands of regional administrations and less power in the hands of the central government. These are represented by parties such as the ISCI and the two major Kurdish parties. On the other hand there are the 'Nationalists' who want to have a stronger central government and to restrict the powers of regional administrations. These are represented by Maliki's Da'awa Party, the Fadheela Party, most Sunni Arabs as well as former PM Iyad Allawi's Iraqi List.
- Half the electoral slots go to Maliki's Da'awa Party
- Maliki retains the Premiership
- Abolishing sectarian quotas in the allocation of public offices
- Reforming the sectarian identity of the UIA
These demands seem to reflect the facts on the ground in light of the results of January's provincial elections. Mailik's Da'awa Party fared much better than any other individual political party. That said, it is logical for Maliki to use this advantageous position to improve his standings as the country prepares for general elections. The other Shiite parties will be facing two choices. The first would be to accept the new status quo and bandwagon with Maliki. The second would be to challenge the status quo and align with other parties to balance Maliki.
My guess is that they will opt for the latter.
In my opinion the upcoming general elections will be a showdown between two trends. On the one hand there are what I call the 'Federalists'; those who want more power in the hands of regional administrations and less power in the hands of the central government. These are represented by parties such as the ISCI and the two major Kurdish parties. On the other hand there are the 'Nationalists' who want to have a stronger central government and to restrict the powers of regional administrations. These are represented by Maliki's Da'awa Party, the Fadheela Party, most Sunni Arabs as well as former PM Iyad Allawi's Iraqi List.
Maliki Jettisons His Former Trade Minister
PM Nouri al-Maliki has recently been accused of obstructing justice by preventing Iraqi courts from prosecuting the former minister of trade. Minister Falah al-Soudani resigned last May after he was indicted in a corruption scandal. The harshest attack on Maliki came from the chief of the integrity committee in the parliament Sabah Sa’aidi.
Sa’aidi told al-Mada that he expected Maliki to give a blind eye to the corruption in the trade ministry. He warned Maliki that covering up on corrupt officials would be “an explicit act of political corruption”.
Under all this pressure, Maliki agreed today to refer the resigned minister to the specialized courts. A letter from the secretariat of the PM office to the Supreme Judicial Council explained that the Prime Minister’s approval was not required in the first place since al-Soudani no longer holds a public office.
This is a good move for Maliki and one more step towards establishing rule of law.
Sa’aidi told al-Mada that he expected Maliki to give a blind eye to the corruption in the trade ministry. He warned Maliki that covering up on corrupt officials would be “an explicit act of political corruption”.
Under all this pressure, Maliki agreed today to refer the resigned minister to the specialized courts. A letter from the secretariat of the PM office to the Supreme Judicial Council explained that the Prime Minister’s approval was not required in the first place since al-Soudani no longer holds a public office.
This is a good move for Maliki and one more step towards establishing rule of law.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Candidate says competition for Kurdistan presidential elections unfair
Kamal Merawadli, 58 is a Kurdish academic who returned from a long stay in the UK to compete in Kurdistan first presidential election. In an interview with al-Sharq al-Awsat he describes some of the obstacle that he, as an independent candidate is facing.
Merawadli also claims that the Kurdish media would not give him air time, even if he had the money to purchase it.
“without exaggeration, I got only 1% of my chances for an electoral campaign. For example, the Electoral Commission allocated $37 million for the elections. In addition, there is the annual region’s presidential budget of $61 million. This budget if for the president to spend as he deems appropriate. By contrast, I did not get a single dollar to fund my campaign. So I relied on my personal savings, which is a mere $70,000. I was there not able to appoint a single person to monitor the elections in Sulaymaniyah, where I would ideally need 2,500 monitors”.
Merawadli also claims that the Kurdish media would not give him air time, even if he had the money to purchase it.
“I was denied access to the media. Not one media network would give five minutes to present my electoral program, even though I tried to purchase a half hour to do so. Their excuse was that they only publicize the programs of slates participating in the parliamentary elections, not those of presidential candidates”
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