Thursday, January 04, 2007

Secret? What secret!?

Where's the secret in this!?

I mean really, with some good common sense and some humble analysis this would have never been a secret nor would it have taken years to figure out.

I think this stands as one example of the state information people in the west have about the geopolitics of the middle east. I can feel that ethnic and sectarian lines are perceived to be concrete lines that no one in the middle east would think of crossing to achieve goals.

Syria for example was on Iran's side during the eight year war with Iraq despite the fact that both Syria and Iraq were ruled by the Ba'ath party and both were bragging about being the beacons and defenders of the Arab nationalism.
The relationships between dictators and terror groups are complex and not the same as one can expect from normal states, take a look at Qaddafi who had also stood with Iran against Saddam, he is now building a statue to commemorate the dictator who used to call Qaddafi Qirdafi (means Monkey-Dafi)!

The same Ba'ath regime in Syria is now providing safe havens, financial and logistical support to the remnants of the same Iraqi Ba'thists they stood against during Iraq's war with Iran.
This is no secret and evidence of such support were visible since as early as summer of 2003.

The alliance between Iran and Syria is so deep that they will utilize anything they can get their hands on to dominate the middle east and defeating America in Iraq is the key to that.

Let's look at some of those "secrets"...

Iran is helping Shia militias = Direct strong support
Syria is helping Sunni militants and Ba'athists = Direct strong support
IRGC supports small and particular groups of Sunni extremists = Direct limited yet effective support
Iran is helping Syria and Hezbollah = Direct strong support
Syria is helping Hezbollah =Direct strong support
Hezbollah is helping the Mehdi Army = Direct limited yet effective support

Those two countries have focused their efforts on one mutual goal for now which is again defeating America in Iraq in order to go ahead with more future steps to dominate the region and they will support anyone and receive support from anyone in this quest, even some former or potential enemies.

What concerns me here is that if it continues to take us this long to identify our enemies and figure out their ways and the shape of their networks we will be always allowing them to be a few steps ahead of us.
While America is facing difficulties in gathering intelligence but what concerns me more is that even what's being gathered is not being processed, interpreted and utilized in the right manner or mace.

This war is different from conventional wars; networks of terror and their relationships with their supporting regimes and the manner in which they work are complex and different than those of conventional enemies and this situation necessitates that our ways evolve and adjust accordingly.

In a war like this, one must be prepared for anything…if the enemy used civilian aircrafts to carry out massacres, it should not be a surprise to see Shia and Sunni extremists join efforts. We must not let small details distract us from seeing the bigger image.

No comments: