Some time ago we expected a series of terror attacks to happen in Lebanon. I won't call it a "wave of violence" because the attacks are coming from one source.
Up until this point, at least 3 attacks with car bombs and IEDs have taken place in Lebanon since the Syrian regime decided to pull out from Lebanon.
So today, we'll try to figure out what this source is and why is this happening in the first place.
So who's behind the attacks?
Groups from the hot babe revolution?
I don't think so.
Could it be other groups from the anti-Syrian movement?
It doesn't make sense this way either.
If these groups were trying to put more pressure on the Syrian government to get out of Lebanon, they would've started doing so before the Syrians began to withdraw their troops and they wouldn't have started the attacks after the withdrawal. And why would they work on destroying their country if they were trying to protect it from the illegal foreign interference!? Instead, they could attack Syrian targets in Lebanon.
Let's go back to the 1st attack where Hariri was assassinated. Primary investigations suggested that the bomb weighed around 1000 kg (2200 pounds) and this is a point that deserves to be examined.
Who you think could possess, transport and place this huge amount of explosives?
I see only three possible parties here; the Lebanese government (or the army), the Syrian troops in Lebanon and finally Hizbollah.
The reason why I don't expect the presence of a fourth suspect here is because the Syrian intelligence elements are/were everywhere and watching everyone. Moreover, Hizbollah controls the southern borders with Israel and Syria is surrounding the rest of Lebanon which makes it almost impossible to get this amount of explosives into the country without being discovered.
Some might wonder why I'm focusing on the situation in Lebanon while the situation in my own country is still hot.
The reason is simple; the people in Iraq and the people in Lebanon are both facing one enemy which is the Ba'ath regime in Syria; the little brother of the Ba'ath wing in Iraq and as everyone in Iraq knows now, the Syrian Ba'ath is playing a major role in the terror activities in Iraq, part of which is indirect by providing shelter and funds for the remnants of the ex-regime and the other part is a direct one through sending foreign terrorists and military intelligence elements to carry out their deadly attacks in Iraq.
So defeating this enemy on one place will make it easier to defeat it on the other front.
What seems to be the most acceptable theory to me is that these attacks are part of an old strategy based on creating a state of instability to punish the people of Lebanon after pressure from the latter forced the former to leave the country. It is a futile attempt to convince the people of Lebanon and the international community that the Syrian army was playing the "peace keeper" in Lebanon and that once this "guardian" is out, peace and stability will be history.
This dirty game is emphasizing the sensitive chord of fear of a civil war in Lebanon. The Syrian leadership thinks that by intimidating the people they can restore their former positions of control in that country as if the people would say "come back please and bring our peace back with you"!
This is somewhat similar to what happened here in Iraq, the terror groups were trying to make the people think that Saddam was the safety valve in Iraq, keeping order and security within acceptable levels and since he got ousted, that order and security cannot be restored again and the country will be subject to the fires of chaos and civil war forever.
Now it's up to the people to decide what they want for themselves; some will step back and kneel to the threats but more will accept the challenge.
The hunger for freedom and the common challenges facing the people of the region will be the key for the *new* Middle East. As the peoples have begun to discover each other and realize their unity, not based on their religions or races but based on common interests and shared dreams.
The pan-Arab nationalists have tried to unite the countries of the region for half a century but they failed because they were favoring the glory of a particular race over the interests of the citizens but now, dropping these old, worn-out slogans will pave the way for a new and healthy type of unity; a unity chosen by the people to serve the people.
Believe me; I have never thought that I could feel so close to the people of Lebanon like I do today. Maybe this is one of the rare advantages of tyrannies; when they begin to fall apart, you begin to realize how much good you've been missing and how much good can be achieved.