Where is Zargawi and why is he silent? Many people were asking this question and I was one of these people although I think I may have a different answer. I think all these people and I’m one of them were talking about suicide attacks that targeted Iraqis frankly without even an American presence near the places where these attacks took place.
Before the revolt of Sadr and his militia there was more suicide attacks in Iraq everyday than what takes place allover the world and from that time only two suicide and one of them targeted an Iraqi official not civilians. This simply cannot be a coincidence and that was our opinion from the first time Sadr revolted, and although I had other possibilities but one particular possibility seemed more logical than the rest.
But why would Sadr’s revolt has such a decisive effect on suicide attacks? If Sadr revolt, suicide bombs stop, and when he stops suicide attacks resume!
Before trying to explain my ‘theory’, I think we might well review other possible reasons.
There are some who believe that this is due to the shortage in volunteers, and I think that this is (sadly) far from being true. The people who are behind such attacks can provide thousands and thousands of volunteers, and I think this is something they considered a long time ago. They have preachers allover the world trying to hunt foolish and bitter desperate young people. The process may have become more difficult for them now but it’s still going faster than their needs, and the day the Islamofascists can’t find someone to carry a suicide attack will announce the end of war on terror. If we just look back a month ago we’ll find that there were ten times more suicide attacks in Iraq than in the whole world, the least to say. Besides, how come they can find people to carry attacks in Indonesia And Saudi Arabia and cannot manage to find someone to do their most important job, destroying Iraq?!
The other possibility is that the American siege on Fallujah and other terrorists strongholds in Iraq have minimized their abilities to carry such attacks, and while they certainly had an effect on them, it’s still not enough to reduce the terrorists activities that much. They are still performing many attacks in different parts of Iraq, but not suicidal, which are in fact easier to carry from the practical point of view.
Did Zargawi leave Iraq? Most experts believe not. Then were is his ‘touch’?
To understand the situation in Iraq now, one has to take a closer look at the component of the Iraqi “resistance” and who finance it and who organize it (if it’s organized).
Most of the arab and Muslim government were against toppling Saddam, and that was certainly not because they liked him or his regime. They were afraid and still are of the consequences of this regime change in Iraq. They tried their best to prevent it by diplomatic ways and they made it easy for fighters from different places to go to Iraq through their borders, but that was not enough. After the regime fall, they were waiting for Iraqi resistance to start and make Iraq a hell for Americans. Days and weeks passed without a single resisting act. After Baghdad’s liberation most of the governerates surrendered with their troops not even engaged in a battle no matter how small. That was more than what Arab rulers could take; an “Arab Muslim” country being invaded and the regime being changed without the people putting an effort to resist it? What should this mean? That Iraqis wanted the change? This could give really insane thoughts to Arabs and Muslims anywhere who didn’t like their governments, and many of these are not much better than Saddam’s regime.
It’s as simple as that; there was no resistance but there should’ve been one, so the Iraqi resistance was ‘invented’.
This started with foreign fighters crossing the intentionally left open borders with finance from outside. These fighters joined the remnants of the Baáthists who although were defeated, were still alive and had huge amounts of money and many supporters who just ran away when faced with the overwhelming American power, but couldn’t find a job or a life for months. Another way to make the opposition to the American presence look like a real resistance is by using many names for the same organization. For example we could see a bunch of masked men on TV claiming they are part of “Ansar Al Sunna” or whatever, and few days later, we see other bunch of masked men calling themselves “Mohammed’s army” and it’s not just a guess but I believe that these are the same people; meaning they are ex-Baáthists united with Salafies mainly from outside picking a different name for illusionary organizations so the one power that represent one very small segment of Iraqis and one that is much hated inside and outside Iraq, looks like many parties representing different segments of Iraqis. One incident that support this is when one of those Mujahideen took his mask of his face to show that he’s not afraid of showing his face anymore, and all Baghdadees who were watching recognized the man. He was a well known Baáthist and a security agent at Saddam days and now he’s a member of an Islamist group!
Of course all this couldn’t fool Iraqis and not even arabs for a long time, as we know these people and we have memorized their ways and attitude and even the tone they speak with; their masks couldn’t really hide their ugly faces. There was an urgent need for a resistance that looks more Iraqi and can give a booster to the deteriorating image of the resistance that was killing Iraqis by suicide attacks that even most Arabs and Muslims couldn’t approve of, and Sadr was the best candidate, as although most of his army is formed of thieves, they are still Iraqis and are not Baáthists. Besides one must admit that there are few mislead Sheát Iraqis who are carried away by the emotions they have for Sadr’s father.
When Sadr joined the ‘resistance’ it gained an Iraqi ‘face’ in the eyes of some Iraqis and many Arabs and westerns, thus it was unwise to smear this image with suicide attacks that have only resulted in Iraqis getting more united but not against the American, it made them more united against terrorism. The minds behind the “resistance” decided that suicide attacks should stop, and they only resumed when Sadr went silent and was not doing his job, simply because they had no other option. The march towards democracy should be stopped and Iraq must be destroyed; at the hands of Iraqis if possible but if not then by any means.
It happened twice till now. When Sadr revolt suicide attacks stop and when Sadr stops suicide attacks resume. The only two suicide attacks that were carried during this period was soon after a peace agreement was reached and when clashes broke up again they stopped. I think that when the Mehdi militia issue will be settled, we will witness again another horrible series of suicide attacks. This whole theory depends on assuming that the relation between the “resistance” and its supporters is much stronger than it looks. The people who support the “resistance” finance it and thus can dictate to a considerable extent its strategy.
There is however another factor *this time* that will have an influence on this from now on. It’s the American’s elections and their effect on the Iraqi issue. I don’t think there are plans for a terrorist attack on America, because they ( the enemies of America’s plans in Iraq) know this will further increase the support for Bush, while killing Iraqis will probably enhance the American support for Iraqis, but killing Americans will promote different emotions and I expect that we’ll see more frequent attacks on Americans in Iraq from now till the election time. This can be seen in today’s attacks for instance, as although there were civilian casualties, it was very obvious that the main target was the American soldiers unlike what happened before when the terrorists openly targeted Iraqis whether in mosques, churches, police stations or training centers for ING.
Most people supporting the resistance think that if Kerry wins he will pull the troops out of Iraq, or that’s what they wish. They know that the decisive factor in this is the American’s casualty, and that shifts their priorities now. They are betting that if they can inflict more losses among American soldiers, American public opinion will favor getting out of Iraq soon and will vote for John Kerry because they (Americans) probably think that too, and that with such public pressure he would find himself more committed to promises he never even made, but gave some impression that he’s at least considering it. The assumption that Americans would pull out of Iraq if they receive heavy casualties is an old one that had stopped looking possible for quite a time, but now with the strong coverage by the media for the losses in Iraq and with the figure 1000 coming up every now and then together with unclear messages from the Kerry camp, the theory has been revived. The bottom line is that with Kerry they think they have a chance but with Bush there is none.
I don’t want to predict anything here but I want to say that if America decided to get out of Iraq before the job is finished, that will be not only disastrous but will be (in my opinion) the worst thing America ever did. Freeing Iraq (again in my opinion) was the best thing America ever did. It gave oppressed people everywhere a hope and a belief that the mightiest power on earth, the symbols of freedom is on their side and that it will help them in one way or another to get their freedom. Their misery has stopped looking eternal. Retreating now will prove some people’s theory that America is an imperialistic power that only care for its interests, and although there’s nothing wrong with caring about one’s own interests, most Iraqis and millions of oppressed people in Darfur, Iran, Syria...etc. like to think more than that of America. Keeping the course will turn this thought into a firm belief.
We understand perfectly that sacrificing lives and hard earned money for the sake of others (although there IS a personal interest here but it maybe not so clear) is a very difficult thing to do, and we know that it’s too much to ask, but tens of Millions of oppressed people around the world with brutal sadistic regimes laying their heave boots on their chests preventing them from even breathing freely, not to mention speaking out or doing something about it, all these people have no one else but you, Americans, to turn to. You are our/their only hope.